William Hinman, a former Director of the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, publicly declared that Bitcoin and Ethereum were not securities in 2018. At the time, he allegedly received millions from his former employer, Simpson Thacher, which promoted Enterprise Ethereum.
The Hinman speech directly links to the SEC vs. Ripple case. Court documents revealed that Hinman continued to meet with Simpson Thacher staff despite SEC Ethics Division warnings. The SEC’s failed attempts to shield the Hinman speech-related documents under attorney-client privilege underscored the significance of Hinman’s speech to the Ripple case.
If the OIG investigation uncovered evidence of crypto conflicts of interest that influenced the SEC’s decision to sue Ripple, the agency may feel compelled to drop its appeal. Empower Oversight and former Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett have both filed Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for the OIG’s report.
XRP Price Outlook: Appeal Strategy and XRP-Spot ETFs
On Tuesday, March 18, XRP fell 2.31%, reversing Monday’s 1.96% gain and closing at $2.2862. XRP underperformed the broader market, which dropped 1.18% to a total crypto market cap of $2.67 trillion.
The SEC’s ongoing silence on its appeal strategy and the OIG’s findings continue to limit XRP’s upside potential.
The implications of an appeal withdrawal are far-reaching. While improving the regulatory environment, a withdrawal may boost the chances of an XRP-spot ETF approval before the October deadline.
An XRP-spot ETF market could fuel institutional demand for XRP, similar to flows into the BTC-spot ETF market. Since launching in January 2024, the US BTC-spot ETF market has recorded total net inflows of $35.659 billion, supporting BTC’s rise to a record high of $109,312.
Key factors influencing XRP’s price outlook:
- SEC Appeal Strategy: An appeal withdrawal could drive XRP past $3.55, while prolonged legal uncertainty might push it below $1.50.
- XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: Approval could trigger institutional inflows, supporting a move toward $5. However, legal challenges could delay the process.
- Macro Risks: Rising trade tensions and a hawkish Fed could pressure XRP toward the February low of $1.7938 while easing tensions and a dovish Fed could fuel a recovery to $2.50.
