The jobs report lets the Federal Reserve maintain its wait-and-see stance with less discomfort—even though investors speculate the central bank will be forced later this year to cushion the blow from President Trump’s sudden tariff increases by lowering rates.

Fed officials are likely to watch closely for signs of economic weakness in the weeks and months ahead. That will be particularly true if financial-market turbulence due to tariffs creates a “sudden-stop” dynamic in the economy.

They have signaled little appetite to preempt any weakness from the trade war by cutting rates, because inflation has been above their target.