UFC 314 predictions, odds, full card preview: Diego Lopes' and Paddy Pimblett's moments of truth

With a win at UFC 314, Paddy Pimblett can become an even bigger superstar than he already is. (REUTERS/John Sibley)

(REUTERS / Reuters)

UFC 314 is the type of card we long for in 2025. It’s always a party down in Miami, and the promotion’s pay-per-view return to South Beach is no exception.

The main event is still a weird one to wrap the mind around. It’s Conor McGregor’s departure from the featherweight division in 2016 all over again. Ilia Topuria vacated his title in February to pursue lightweight glory, leaving former champion Alexander Volkanovski to enter the Jose Aldo role in an attempt at starting a second title reign. Time is a flat circle, folks.

Unlike Aldo, who had a rematch with another legendary former champion (Frankie Edgar) to start his second reign, Volkanovski has rising superstar contender Diego Lopes in front of him. It’s been a meteoric rise for Lopes, who’s made the best of every opportunity thus far in his time with the UFC.

Similarly, England’s Paddy Pimblett is tasked with perennial lightweight contender Michael Chandler in the co-main event. Both matchups are of the past vs. future variety. It’s just a matter of whether the future is now.

Before the big closing bouts, Bellator G.O.A.T. Patricio Pitbull makes his long-awaited UFC debut when he battles featherweight staple Yair Rodriguez. With so many variables in play right now at 145 pounds, a title shot could await the winner. That’s without mentioning another surging contender, Jean Silva, who has been a must-see entertainer in the Octagon. On this occasion, he plans to make Bryce Mitchell his next victim. That’s only scratching the surface of UFC 314. This card is one you can’t miss.

It’s good to officially be king, friends. Let’s see if I can hold down the throne as we make some picks.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Uncrowned’s MMA staff makes its UFC 314 predictions. (Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports illustration)

A new UFC featherweight champion will be crowned no matter the winner of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

Something about a Lopes title fight just sounds like guaranteed chaos (so far, it has been). That’s what his non-title fights have been, so why change now?

Lopes, 30, will need to bring that fire to beat someone of Volkanovski’s maddening caliber. That’s the big question about this fight, though. Is “Volk” still “Volk?” Hell, he might be someone even greater than what we’re accustomed to seeing if his fight week photos suggest anything. The man is chiseled out of stone and appears to be in the greatest shape of his life.

Volkanovski took an intentional break after his loss to Topuria in February 2024 and has spoken about how much better it’s made him feel. It’s difficult to fall into the camp that believes Volkanovski’s chin has deteriorated. Knockout losses to Topuria and Islam Makhachev are nothing to be ashamed of.

A jiu-jitsu ace, Lopes’ striking has come a long way from his LUX Fight League days, and he has serious power to boot. While his size and reach advantages may cause Volkanovski backers minor pause, let’s not forget “The Great” has fought at these disadvantages for his entire career. Against larger, lankier foes like Max Holloway, Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez, Volkanovski delivered literal MMA masterclasses.

I love Lopes. I think everyone does, or at least should. However, Volkanovski is just better in all aspects of professional fisticuffs, excluding submission ability and knockout power — hence why Lopes needs to create chaos and go for broke immediately. He needs to catch Volkanovski with anything.

Somewhat stunningly, this will be Lopes’ first UFC main event. He’s no stranger to five-round fights though, as he had title bouts in LUX and Fury FC. Unfortunately for him, he’s facing one of the greatest five-round fighters the world has ever known.

Despite his age (36), I don’t think Volkanovski is done. He’s seen it all at this stage, including dangerous rising stars like Lopes.

Pick: Volkanovski

There really are some interesting parallels between our featured bouts at UFC 314.

Pimblett’s competition level hasn’t sniffed that of Chandler’s, which makes this the ultimate moment of truth for Pimblett. However, it could also be argued as such for Chandler after a second career loss to Charles Oliveira. Most humans will not have fun against “Do Bronx,” yet Chandler still rallied late after a lopsided four-round beating to nearly put away the former lightweight king.

I love this fight. After Chandler’s loss, I thought it was perfect in every sense of the matchmaking process. The former three-time Bellator champion is 38 years old and still able to deliver excitement after losing two years of his career due to his endless wait for Conor McGregor. Can he win? Against someone of Pimblett’s (current) caliber, he should be able to — and I think he will.

The competition level is a significant factor; we’ve heard Chandler acknowledge that. Pimblett has struggled in various ways throughout his six UFC wins thus far. One of those was such a struggle that the world doesn’t think he should have been rewarded with the victory. (Hi, Jared Gordon.) In other cases, Pimblett’s striking defense has been exposed by lesser strikers finding his chin. Chandler is as explosive as it gets at lightweight, and a single glancing bomb is something “The Baddy” must worry about. Pimblett might find success striking with Chandler, but he’ll have his work cut out for him regarding damage delivery.

Let’s look at the presumed X-factor Pimblett holds in the matchup: his submission game.

Pimblett, 30, has proven to be a brilliant grappler and his setup on the King Green triangle choke was gorgeous. Against Jordan Leavitt, some of the techniques Pimblett used against the cage before he found the rear-naked choke were as crafty as you’ll see at the highest level. The guy has some quality jiu-jitsu. However, he won’t outwrestle a wrestler like Chandler, and even if he does, Chandler has wildly underrated submission defense.

This is another case of a fighter not being at the end of the road yet, especially considering the matchup. Pimblett winning shouldn’t be surprising after what we’ve seen from each recently, but let’s understand how impressive that would be for “The Baddy.”

Pick: Chandler

There isn’t a fight at UFC 314 that has me more conflicted than Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull. This is the main event for hardcore fans right here.

Seeing Pitbull in and around the UFC isn’t going to feel real for maybe a year or two — however long he has left in his career. It’s the equivalent of your favorite football team’s best player ending his career in a different jersey after nearly 20 years of great memories and success with one squad.

The past three years have been odd for Pitbull. His most recent fight saw him finish Jeremy Kennedy with strikes in a vintage third-round finish. Pitbull looked like he lost a step until the end materialized. Sometimes he just looks that way, though. There’s no rushing anything with Pitbull. He’s a methodical, calculated, smart and deceptively dangerous counter-striker. You’re at risk anytime you try to lead against the Brazilian, and Rodriguez is going to attempt to do that consistently with his long-range kicks.

Versatility isn’t in question between these two. Rodriguez is one of the most creative strikers in featherweight history and can give Pitbull problems the more he mixes up his attacks. It will be all about how well he watches for the counter shots — and takedowns, like Pitbull’s inside trip. While wildly active with elbows on the ground, Rodriguez doesn’t try to stand the action up. If Pitbull controls him in situations like that, we’ll be in for a tight, dramatic contest.

Pressuring Rodriguez eliminates his great ranged attacks, and that’s simply not Pitbull’s style. Pitbull’s best bet is replicating Volkanovski’s game plan against “El Pantera” and cutting off outside movements or counter kicks.

Pitbull succeeding in the UFC is an amusing thought, and he might do so in the long term. But stylistically and with his comfort in the Octagon, I can’t help but edge it to Rodriguez.

Pick: Rodriguez

Jean Silva has been an absolute madman since bursting onto the UFC scene. (Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)

(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)

Imagine if Bryce Mitchell is the one to put a dent in the Fighting Nerds’ momentum.

Well, folks, it could happen.

To somewhat ignore the process of the last fight’s breakdown, the entire Uncrowned staff has faith in the seemingly unstoppable Silva pulling this one off. The man exudes a different confidence level when throwing limbs into faces. He requested this fight, and UFC CEO Dana White abided.

Mitchell is a stiff and plodding attacker on his feet, but when on top of opponents, he can crush with ground-and-pound or twist a spine until it’s quitting time. Realistically though, Mitchell’s twister submission in 2019 is the only thing that’s blinded people to his submission threat — or lack thereof. He hasn’t been a finisher in the UFC, and his Kron Gracie knockout was served on a silver platter after Gracie kept bafflingly jumping guard.

Silva knows the approach Mitchell will take. Expect another absurd highlight on the Brazilian’s reel to launch him further into future superstardom.

Pick: Silva

Nikita Krylov is only 33 years old. He’s in his second UFC stint and debuted in the Octagon in 2013. When was his most recent fight? In November 2023, when he submitted Ryan Spann with a triangle choke, extending his winning streak to three. Dominick Reyes, 35, will be the 40th fight of Krylov’s career. This is bizarre stuff.

Everyone loves got-or-get-got fighters, and Krylov has been one of those. With only four total decisions on his résumé, Krylov mixes up his finishes well with 16 knockouts and 12 submissions. The list of notable wins Krylov holds is too long to rattle off now, but the dude has cannons for hands and is an overall well-rounded competitor. Despite Reyes’ resurgence, this matchup is as good of a return bout as Krylov could request.

Reyes is predominantly a long striker with great knockout ability. However, Krylov’s weakness has been facing submissions, which Reyes has never scored. Krylov’s lone knockout loss was in his UFC debut at heavyweight. Reyes’ last two knockout wins came over chinny veteran Dustin Jacoby and the ghost of Anthony Smith. It’s not to knock Reyes’ performances on his end, but the opposition was what it was.

Unless Krylov has become a (still relatively youthful) shell of himself over his layoff, there’s no reason to believe he won’t just show up, impress us all and dip out again.

Pick: Krylov

Virna Jandiroba vs. Yan Xiaonan has been entirely buried on this loaded card, but you’ll want to keep an eye on it because the winner very well could — and arguably should — be fighting for the strawweight title next. That’s whether or not it’s an interim belt, depending on how things shake out with reigning champion Zhang Weili and her flyweight superfight hopes. In this matchup, Yan will once again have to overcome a vastly superior grappler.

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper will be like watching a father fight his son. Julian Erosa vs. Darren Elkins equals blood, blood, blood and some more blood. … Did I mention blood?

UFC 314 slaps and is well worth your time out of the gate. Cheers to Saturday.

Quick picks:

Dan Ige (+150) def. Sean Woodson (-185)
Virna Jandiroba (-150) def. Yan Xiaonan (+125)
Chase Hooper (-900) def. Jim Miller (+600)
Michał Oleksiejczuk (-200) def. Sedriques Dumas (+165)
Julian Erosa (-350) def. Darren Elkins (+275)
Mitch Raposo (+145) def. Sumadaerji (-175)
Maro Tulio (-350) def. Tresean Gore (+275)
Nora Cornolle (-180) def. Hailey Cowan (+145)

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UFC 314 predictions, odds, full card preview: Diego Lopes’ and Paddy Pimblett’s moments of truth

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