US stock futures slumped on Monday, eyeing a return to losses as trade-war worries kept building in the run-up to President Trump’s tariff bonanza later in the week.
Contracts on the tech-Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way lower, down 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) sank roughly 0.8%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped about 0.5%, or 200 points.
Markets are set to wrap up March on a woeful note, after a rough month and quarter beset by Trump’s fast-evolving tariff policy. Last week was the fifth in six weeks that the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) ended the week in the red.
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Stocks have sold off amid concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade offensive, as uncertainty about its scope dampens market appetite for risk. Investors are now bracing for the broadest set yet of US tariffs, set to be unveiled on April 2 — described as “Liberation Day” by the president.
Trump said he plans to target “all countries” with reciprocal tariffs from the start, dampening hopes for a more limited push. A report from The Washington Post this weekend suggested the president is pushing advisers to go even “bigger” in imposing the levies.
Amid the tariff risks, markets are keeping watch for signs of economic stress, after stocks fell in the wake of a hotter-than-expected read on “core” PCE — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The March jobs report due on Friday is the data highlight of the week, with updates on private payrolls and job openings also on the docket.
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- Overseas markets are being blasted by Trump tariff worries today. Momentum names in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting slammed premarket. And US markets are taking it on the chin in premarket trading.
- It’s shaping up to be a week, as they would say.
- To that end, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist David Kostin cut his three-month and 12-month return forecasts for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 5% and 6%, respectively. That would put the S&P 500 at 5,300 in three months, and 5,900 in 12 months.
- “Slowing growth and rising uncertainty warrant a higher equity risk premium and lower valuation multiples for equities,” Kostin said.
- The team at HSBC is out this morning with a warning that the sell-off in stocks is likely to persist.
- Meanwhile, Kostin’s counterpart on the economics team at Goldman — Jan Hatzius — on Monday lifted his recession probability estimate to 35%, from 20% previously.
- Gold (GC=F) prices pushed above $3100 for the first time on Monday, marking the third consecutive day the commodity has touched record highs. The price keeps pushing up as tariff worries and geopolitical tensions lead investors toward safe-haven assets.
- Reuters reports:
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