Sedriques Dumas and Michal Oleksiejczuk will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here’s my Dumas vs. Oleksiejczuk prediction.
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds, Prediction
Middleweight BoutOddsDumas Odds+162Oleksiejczuk Odds-188Over/under rounds1.5 (-160/+120)
Projection: Oleksiejczuk 70.0%
Michal Oleksiejczuk spent significant time with Team Fighting Nerds prior to Saturday’s matchup with Sedriques Dumas – a long middleweight (2″ taller, 5″ reach advantage) with an awkward skillset.
Olekseicejzuk has largely fought ranked competition – including new cornerman Caio Borralho – and will take a significant step down against Dumas, who doesn’t use his reach well and has struggled with unranked fighters.
Dumas’s best abilities are his size and offensive grappling/scrambling (55% control rate vs. 23% for Oleksiejczuk), and he might win the fight from top position if he can consolidate takedowns.
Still, Oleksiejczuk has clearly spent time working on his grappling with his new camp, is the far more dangerous and efficient striker (+0.3 to -0.1 differential per minute), who loves to work the body; and he has ample canvas on Dumas’ torso to land body combinations.
Michal used to compete at Light Heavyweight and has fought and defeated plenty of taller and longer opponents, including Chidi Njokuani (6’3, 80″ reach), Modestas Bukauskas (6’3″, 78″), Shamil Gamzatov (6’2″, 76″); the size differential doesn’t concern me at all. His power, functional at 205, has proven even more impactful at 185; cardio and defensive grappling are the main issues with his game, and Michal attempted to address both weaknesses by switching camps.
I projected Michal Oleksiejczuk as a -233 favorite and would bet his moneyline to -220.
Moreover, I project value on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +123, listed +155) or inside the distance (projected +101, listed +110) depending upon the book.
Bets
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (-190, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -220
- Michal Oleksiejczuk wins Inside the Distance (+115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to +110
