Golfbet Roundtable: Picks for the Masters

Written by Will Gray

AUGUSTA, Ga. – We’re halfway through the 89th Masters, and the only certainty is that a wild finish awaits.

In total, 37 of the last 38 Masters champions have been T10 or better after the first two rounds. (The lone outlier in that stretch came all the way from T12.) To shorten things further, 31 of the last 38 winners were T5 or better after 36 holes.

With Justin Rose leading at 8-under, one shot ahead of Bryson DeChambeau and two ahead of Rory McIlroy, the top-10 line of demarcation drifts out to the group of players at 4-under. In total, 11 names could still fit the top-10 trend while slipping into the green jacket on Sunday. (Condolences to the decorated group at 3-under that includes two Masters winners, two Masters runners-up and a two-time major champ.)

Let’s take a look at the revised crop of contenders, who are ranked below – not by the leaderboard, or the odds board, but instead by spinning it forward: who’s actually going to win this thing?

It’s his until it’s not. Scheffler (finally) showed signs of mortality Friday, making a few hiccups as the winds swirled across his second nine. But he also took advantage of good breaks, notably chipping in for birdie after his ball bounced back out of the pine straw on the par-3 12th. Scheffler is in unfamiliar territory, having led most of the way in each of his two prior Masters wins, but he still knows this place – and the pressures that await this weekend – better than anyone on the leaderboard. He’s the man to beat, even if the oddsmakers are pricing him behind two others at this point by the thinnest of margins.

He’s not in unprecedented territory, but he’s close. Only four times in Masters history has the green jacket gone to the reigning U.S. Open champ – and since 1964, the only time it has happened was when Tiger Woods completed his run of four straight major wins in 2001. But DeChambeau has been steady inside the ropes (in between lengthy range sessions), and he’ll benefit from a spot in the final pairing alongside Rose.

Last year, DeChambeau notably opened with 65 and then failed to break par the rest of the way. That streak is out the window after rounds of 69-68, and his comfort level at Augusta National continues to grow. Though the herd of true contenders continues to thin, he doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere.

I’m not sure that Lowry has a better chance to win this week than McIlroy, but if you’re offering him at +1600 with McIlroy priced at +330 and just one stroke ahead? I’m so in. Lowry continues to fly under the radar this week and did just enough Friday to stay relevant on a course where he was T-3 three years ago. He’s a major champion, he’s playing well early in 2025 and he’s the type of player that will thrive if (when) conditions get firm and fast over the weekend.

Let the storylines bounce between Scheffler and McIlroy, let Rose take some of the heat as the overnight leader for the second straight day – Lowry is in prime position and I expect this number to be much shorter entering the final round.

Well, he’s certainly more than alive. After faltering down the stretch of his opening-round 72, McIlroy seemed to have forfeited his chances at the elusive green jacket in a matter of about an hour. Instead, he turned it around in unbelievable fashion and now heads into Round 3 as the betting favorite. Things could not have gone any better for McIlroy, who was bogey-free and took advantage of good breaks (notably his pine straw eagle on No. 13), then kicked his feet up and watched conditions get more demanding in the afternoon.

After trailing by seven shots overnight, he’s now trailing just two players. That was fast! Now the tough part begins. He’ll need to shoulder an immense burden to close out the career Grand Slam, and all eyes will be on him Saturday – more so than Rose, DeChambeau or even Scheffler. Not saying it can’t be done, but it’s a larger weight than others will bear over the next two days. And as McIlroy (and others) have shown throughout the week, the margins are thin around this place and will only get thinner the rest of the way.

I still don’t think he’s going anywhere. Rose putted the lights out en route to his opening-round 65, and while the birdies slowed on Friday he’s still picking up more than seven shots on the field with putter alone. At age 44 he has the maturity and comportment to handle the pressure of being in the lead, and potentially trying to go wire-to-wire at a place where he lost a playoff in 2017.

He was roughly in the same price neighborhood after Round 1, and I still think this is a spot where the Englishman is being overshadowed by bettors and oddsmakers alike who expect him to (eventually) fade. An even better in-play opportunity may be to get Rose at +105 for a top-five finish.

In my mind, there’s a considerable drop-off at this point. Conners will be in the spotlight Saturday, playing alongside McIlroy in the penultimate pairing. His run of three straight top-10 finishes at Augusta National deserves consideration, as does his streak of three straight top-10s across the Florida Swing last month. The Canadian has all the tee-to-green skills to contend, and he entered the week as a trendy sleeper option. Through 36 holes, he’s done nothing to dispel that notion. But can he be trusted on the greens as the pressure mounts? Those questions will be answered quickly in the third round.

The Aussie is quietly turning back the clock, playing his way into position on a course where he narrowly missed wins in 2011 and 2013. Day nearly played the first 36 holes without dropping a shot, making his first bogey of the week on No. 18 Friday. Ten years removed from his major triumph, he has the veteran savvy to stay within reach as conditions get more demanding.

Hatton got it to 7-under at one point before falling back, thanks in part to a missed 2-footer for par on No. 17. The battle for the Englishman remains internal, as a (visible) meltdown often feels within reach for a player who doesn’t hesitate to display his on-course frustration. He kept the Augusta demons at bay for another day, but there’s work to be done if he’s to improve upon his T9 finish last year as an all-time best at the Masters.

When asked after his round to rate his swing on a scale from 1-10, Hovland said, “Maybe a 6.” Not exactly brimming with optimism, but he also said his swing was a “4” when he won near Tampa last month. The Norwegian got to 6-under at one point in the second round before bogeys on his last two holes, which changed the landscape for his win chances significantly. Hovland has been in the mix at majors before, notably at the PGA Championship each of the last two years, but he’ll need to rein in the volatility of his swing (and self-assessments) to have a chance this weekend.

Last year it was brother Nicolai contending in his Masters debut, and now it’s Rasmus’ turn. The Dane made eight birdies en route to a second-round 67, but he has never finished better than T60 in six prior major starts. He’ll improve upon that stat this weekend just by making the cut, even though he’s a longshot to slip into the green jacket.

McCarty made a brilliant run through the middle of his second round, playing Nos. 6-17 in 8-under to rocket up the leaderboard. He’s in the mix heading into the weekend in his Masters debut, which in and of itself is a remarkable achievement. But Matt McCarty is not winning the Masters.