All eyes will be on Atlanta’s Trae Young, who averaged 28.3 points and eight assists per game vs. Orlando this season.
The first day of this year’s SoFi Play-In Tournament pits the No. 7 and No. 8 finishers in each conference.
The 2025 NBA postseason tips off with the SoFi Play-In Tournament. Get ready for the action with previews and predictions for Tuesday’s matchups, which will determine the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences, and two of the four teams competing Friday for the East and West’s No. 8 seeds.
East: (8) Atlanta Hawks @ (7) Orlando Magic (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
The winner: Advances to face Boston in the first round as the No. 7 seed
The loser: Plays the winner of Wednesday’s Heat-Bulls game to determine the East’s No. 8 seed
Regular-season results: Series tied, 2-2
Keep your eyes on: Contrast in styles
The Magic feature a killer tandem of young forwards in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who combined for 61.3 points per game against Atlanta. For comparison, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard teamed up for an NBA-best 55.3 this season. The Hawks are more reliant on their guards and their wings. Orlando plays slow, ranking last in pace. Atlanta ranked third. The Magic are the more physical team, though the Hawks were called for more fouls in the season series. The grindier this gets, the more it favors Orlando, and vice versa.
Key matchup: Trae Young vs. a platoon
Jalen Suggs, the Magic’s first option at point guard, didn’t even face Atlanta this season after going out (quadriceps surgery) in early January. That leaves the Trae Young problem to other Orlando defenders, from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Anthony Black to Gary Harris and Cole Anthony.
Young thrives on big stages, and with the whole league watching, this game might as well be played at Madison Square Garden. His usual numbers (24.2 ppg, 11.6 apg) tilted more toward scoring vs. Orlando: 28.3 ppg, 8.0 apg. Overall, he had 51 points/assists double-doubles, and when the game gets tight, Young gets better. He led the league in clutch assists and clutch free throws while ranking third in clutch points and clutch 3-pointers.
Prediction: Magic
The Hawks know what they’re doing in Play-In situations, going 3-1 so far in the end-of-season setup to snag their last two first-round appearances in 2022 and ’23. They’re riding high, having won four of their last five games. But Orlando might have the edge in desperation, trying to salvage a season that was supposed to be onward and upward from their 47 victories and Game 7 test against Cleveland last spring. The Magic won five of their final six and 12 of 18 to reach .500 (first non-winning team to win a division, by the way). They weathered injury layoffs to Banchero and Wagner and sagged when Suggs and Moritz Wagner were lost but they have settled down around the forwards and the defense.
(8) Memphis Grizzlies @ (7) Golden State (10 p.m. ET, TNT)
The winner: Advances to face Houston in the first round as the No. 7 seed
The loser: Plays the winner of Wednesday’s Dallas-Sacramento game to determine the West’s No. 8 seed
Regular-season results: Golden State won, 3-1
Keep your eyes on: Play-In Jimmy
He and his would rather flex the nickname “Playoff Jimmy,” but facts speak loudly: This is the third consecutive season Butler has helped/hindered his team into the Play-In. His habit of sitting out regular-season games forced Miami to play up through the ranks in 2023 and ’24, and this year, he did it to the Heat again before fleeing. Sure, his game was an elixir for Golden State as they were 25-26 before his arrival … and 23-8 after. He scored more points from the foul line in his 30 games than any Warrior except Steph Curry over 82. But his shooting declined inside and outside the arc. And now he’s on injury watch after taking a knee to his left thigh in Sunday’s finale vs. the LA Clippers.
Key matchup: Ja Morant vs. Steph Curry
If you’re one of those aficionados of strong defense, you’ll have two of the league’s best on the court in Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. and Golden State’s Draymond Green. Both figure to get votes for Kia Defensive Player of the Year and are essential to how their teams try to clamp down on opponents. But it will be more fun to focus on the potent, undersized scoring point guards: the electric, attacking Morant vs. the perpetually moving, deep-threat Curry.
Coincidentally, both got their points in the season series, but both went to extremes in doing so. Morant scored nine points in his first meeting with the Warriors, then 36. Curry went for 13, then just two and, finally, 52. It would be fun to get this shootout in a best-of-seven; the stakes of one-and-done might dial up the intensity.
Prediction: Warriors
Memphis hasn’t exactly peaked for the postseason, dropping six of its final 10 (coach Taylor Jenkins’ finale, then five of replacement Tuomas Iisalo’s nine). Be aware, too, that the Grizzlies went 0-for-California this season, losing all eight games in the state. Golden State dropped No. 82 to miss a secure seed, but for the past two months, it has been all about extending that contenders’ window for Curry and Green. Butler helped get them this far, and with two shots to advance to a legit first-round series against either Houston or Oklahoma City, it doesn’t seem likely the Warriors are wrapping up this week.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.
