The Phillies will look to bounce back against the Cardinals following a tough extra-inning loss to the NL East rival Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. The Cardinals started the season strong but have struggled of late, losing 7 of their last 10 games. Despite the Cardinals recent struggles, they’re 4th in OPS this season (.788) averaging 6 runs per game. The Phillies aren’t far behind, sitting 6th in OPS (.771), averaging 4.7 runs per game. With both offenses capable of putting up numbers, this one could go either way. With that being said, I think the real value lies outside of picking a team.
The Cardinals come into this matchup with the second-worst ERA in the league this season (5.24), and that could be a serious problem as they get set to face the Phillies this weekend. On the mound for the Cardinals is Andre Pallante, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Pallante hasn’t gone deep in either start, and in his last outing against the Red Sox he threw just 4.1 innings, striking out 6 and giving up 2 earned runs. If the Phillies can get to Pallante early on, that will open the door for them to take advantage of a struggling STL bullpen — which enters with a 4.94 ERA this season. As for the Phillies, they are sending Aaron Nola to the mound — he is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA. In Nola’s last start he gave up 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings pitched against the Dodgers. Nola needs to be careful in this start, as the Cards are more than capable of hitting the long ball. They are seventh in the majors with 16 homers. Nola has already given up 4 HRs in his first 2 starts, which is something that’ll be in the back of his mind while on the mound. At the end of the day, I think there will be plenty of runs scored in this matchup and the run total seems a little low to me — which is why I’m taking the over as my best bet of the day.
Phillies vs Cardinals prediction: Over 7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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