Around 1 million people in the Lower Mississippi Valley between Paducah, Kentucky, and Memphis, Tennessee, are currently facing the highest level of risk for both severe storms, including strong tornadoes, and destructive flooding—an extremely rare combination.
It’s rare to reach the highest level of risk for severe storms (a level 5 of 5 happens in the US about once per year, on average) or for excessive rainfall and flood risk (a level 4 of 4 happens fewer than once per month, on average).
Only once before has the same location been outlooked for the highest level risks for storms and floods by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center, respectively, according to a CNN analysis going back over the past decade.
May 20, 2019, saw a level 5 of 5 high risk from the SPC and a level 4 of 4 high risk from the WPC over the state of Oklahoma. The event resulted in more than three dozen tornado reports and flooding that prompted a state of emergency for all 77 Oklahoma counties.
Facing simultaneous threats from tornadoes and flooding can cause confusion when it comes to getting to safety. When sheltering during a tornado, it’s recommended to move to a basement or interior room on the lowest level of a building, whereas during a flood, it’s best to get to higher ground or move to higher levels of a building.
If you find yourself facing imminent threats from a tornado and flash flood, you should shelter in the lowest dry level of a building until after the tornado threat passes.
A tornado watch is in effect for nearly 5 million people in parts of northern and central Arkansas, southern and eastern Missouri and southern Illinois until 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday. The watch contains St. Louis and Little Rock, Arkansas.
A line of severe thunderstorms recently moved into the westernmost portion of the watch. Storms in the next few hours will have damaging winds up to 70 mph, ping pong ball-sized hail up to 1.5 inches and the potential for a few “intense” tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Illinois and Missouri until 4 PM CDT pic.twitter.com/dKe6EJi0oQ
— NWS Tornado (@NWStornado) April 2, 2025
Missouri State Highway Patrol captured images of an overturned train and downed trees and power lines in the Missouri towns of Nevada and Moundville after a tornado moved through the area.
No fatalities have been reported in Vernon County, which includes both towns, at this time, the agency said in a post on Facebook.
The county is located in western Missouri on the border with Kansas, about 115 miles south of Kansas City, Missouri.
Several structures are “totally destroyed” in the central Missouri town of Pilot Grove on Wednesday after a severe thunderstorm and tornado, Cooper County Emergency Management Director Larry Oerly told CNN
Oerly said he has no information on any deaths or injuries. A spokesperson for Boone Hospital in the city of Columbia, 40 miles east of Pilot Grove, told CNN their EMS had not yet been contacted for any patient transports.
The Missouri State Highway Patrol has posted several photos of the damage to buildings, power lines and vehicles.
Additional storm damage photos from the Pilot Grove area. pic.twitter.com/MbjU1nPn5V
— MSHP Troop F (@MSHPTrooperF) April 2, 2025
🚨Storm Damage In Cooper County🚨First responders continue to go from residence to residence in Pilot Grove, checking for individuals who may be trapped or injured.
We ask that you please avoid the area as this time. pic.twitter.com/jatvtRR1Pq
— MSHP Troop F (@MSHPTrooperF) April 2, 2025
“Troopers are responding to multiple structures being severely damaged and vehicles overturned in Pilot Grove, just south of I-70, in Cooper County,” the patrol said on X.
Route 135, “in and around Pilot Grove, is closed at this time due to multiple power lines across the roadway,” according to the patrol.
Meteorologists use a wide array of weather models and other observations to make the best forecast possible. One of those things is Nadocast, which I sometimes look at as a gut check during an active severe weather day like this.
Nadocast is kind of like AI — it uses machine learning to analyze data and produce probabilities of tornadoes occurring in certain areas.
Its most recent output highlighted western Kansas and Tennessee as the area most at risk of tornadoes today (pink, 30% area). But it also shows strong tornadoes – EF2 or higher – are possible from northern Louisiana to Indiana and Ohio.
12Z Day Tornado Forecast (New New 2022 Models) pic.twitter.com/KS9gxAb201
— Nadocast (@nadocast) April 2, 2025
The Storm Prediction Center also provides similar probabilities. The difference is those are checked by expert forecasters before they are released. Nadocast is pure machine learning, so often needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The advantage to a model like this is that it can be updated more frequently than the SPC outlooks.
Dangerous severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be moving so quickly, people in their path may have mere moments to get to safety, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Storms in parts of the Plains this morning were moving at 60 mph and this afternoon’s storms will likely be even faster.
“It is important to take action when warnings are issued and not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm,” the SPC warned.
A level 5 of 5 high risk of severe thunderstorms is in place today for parts of the Mississippi Valley.
High-risk days are only used when forecasters are very confident conditions are right for widespread, dangerous storms. They’ve occurred on less than 1% days over the past 25 years, according to a CNN analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
But the last high-risk day happened just last month.
A powerful storm set off a tornado outbreak in mid-March that produced more than 100 tornadoes in the central, southern and eastern United States. Many of these same areas could be in the path of violent storms today.
In 2024, there was just one high-risk day of severe thunderstorms—likewise for 2023.
A radar confirmed tornado ripped through a small town about an hour and a half east of Kansas City on Wednesday morning, causing “significant damage” according to the Missouri Highway Patrol.
The tornado hit Pilot Grove, Missouri, just after 9:00 a.m. CDT. The extent of the damage in the area is unclear, but photos showed structural damage to homes and at least one vehicle that was flipped.
🚨Significant Damage In Pilot Grove🚨Troopers are responding to multiple structures being severely damaged and vehicles overturned in Pilot Grove, just south of I-70, in Cooper County.
Please avoid the area. pic.twitter.com/9e96f2ZdHm
— MSHP Troop F (@MSHPTrooperF) April 2, 2025
There have been multiple confirmed tornadoes Wednesday morning.
A tornado in Owasso, Oklahoma, outside of Tulsa, downed a number of trees and damaged several roofs and homes, according to video from Michelle Heath on Wednesday.
The video shows wooden fences knocked down in multiple places and a downed tree that fell on a house, which had some siding ripped off. Chainsaws could be heard in the distance.
Heath and her 7-year-old got into their storm shelter as the storm passed, she said. Her husband was driving elsewhere and had to pull over because of the storm.
National Weather Service forecasters in Arkansas are sounding the alarm this morning as severe thunderstorms approach the state.
“Today has the making of a serious, severe weather outbreak across the entire state,” the NWS in Little Rock, Arkansas, warned.
Parts of the state are under a level 5 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms, with violent storms set to impact the area this afternoon and evening.
“Today has the necessary (atmospheric) ingredients in place to be a memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the declarative statement given the history of severe weather in Arkansas,” the weather service said.
“It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of minutes to protect life.”
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail larger than baseballs and tornadoes are possible in the state. Some tornadoes are likely to be long-lived and could be rated EF3 or stronger.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear on Wednesday declared a state of emergency for the commonwealth and urged residents to prepare for a four-day severe weather event that could include damaging winds, tornadoes and hail, as well as major flooding for parts of the state.
“Every risk is on the table,” Beshear said in a video posted on X.
“As we move through the next four days, we are going to see the most rain that many parts of western Kentucky have seen in a long time,” the governor said, adding the heavy rain could cause flooding in areas that don’t normally flood.
Beshear also noted the state is “under some of the most serious weather threats I’ve seen” in his post.
“We need everyone statewide to take this seriously. Tonight, we expect tornadoes, dangerous winds and hail. You need to be prepared. Have alerts on, an emergency kit ready and stay elsewhere if safer,” he wrote.
A rare level 5 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of the Mississippi Valley, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Storms in this area could produce multiple long-track tornadoes of EF3 strength or greater.
High risk days are only used when forecasters are very confident that the necessary atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms are in place and will produce widespread, dangerous storms. They’ve occurred on less than 1% days over the past 25 years, according to a CNN analysis of NOAA data.
The last one was issued last month as a part of a multi-day tornado outbreak that killed dozens of people in some of the same areas at risk again today.
Strong tornadoes – rated at least EF2 – are also possible from Louisiana to Ohio. The greatest tornado risk will begin in the afternoon and continue into Wednesday night.
By the evening, severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas to as far north as Michigan. A few more storms could develop overnight in Texas.
The Mississippi Valley could see historic rain and floods this week, with a rare level 4 of 4 high risk of flooding rainfall in effect Thursday for parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
“Extensive, rare, and at times catastrophic, flash flooding is likely… flash flood water levels may reach areas that rarely or have never flooded before,” forecasters at the National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, said.
It’s hard to overstate just how significant level 4 of 4, high risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average, but are responsible for more than 80% of all flood-related damage and 40% of all flood-related deaths, research from the WPC shows.
Forecasters predict storms will work over the same areas repeatedly and could drop 2 to 6 inches of rain each day –– especially from Arkansas to Indiana.
By Saturday, areas caught repeatedly under the heaviest storms could end up with more than 15 inches of rain. The corridor where Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee meet are the most likely place for these extreme totals.
