Eastern Conference play-in tournament seeding is on the line on Tuesday night in Orlando.
The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks have split their first two games in the 2024-25 season, but they have two matchups over their final four contests with just one game separating them in the standings.
Entering Tuesday’s clash, Orlando holds a one-game lead on the Hawks for the No. 7 seed. With a win, the Magic would give themselves a chance to avoid a winner-take-all game (for the No. 7 spot) in the final matchup of the regular season.
The No. 7 spot is key, as it not only gives a team two chances to win a game to make the playoffs, but it also means that both games (if needed) will be played at that team’s home arena.
Orlando, which has won seven of its last 10 games, is surging at the moment as it aims to land the best seed in the East play-in.
Let’s break down the odds, implications, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
In his two previous matchups with the Magic, Okongwu was held to seven rebounds in each, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise.
This season, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, and it’s a top-10 team in rebounding percentage over its last 10 contests.
Okongwu has only 11 or more boards in 22 of his 71 games this season. He’s a fade candidate at this number on Tuesday.
The spread in this game has moved in favor of the Magic, but I think it’s a perfect reason to back the Hawks to cover on the road.
This season, Atlanta is an impressive 18-11 against the spread as a road underdog, and it won outright in the last meeting between these teams in Orlando. While the Magic are 15-11 against the spread as home favorites, they also have one of the worst offenses in the NBA, which makes it hard to trust them to win games by wide margins.
This is still a short spread, but there is a lot at stake for both sides when it comes to play-in tournament seeding.
The Hawks are being treated as the inferior team here, but they are 12th in the league in net rating over their last 10 games despite a 5-5 record. Orlando is eighth during that stretch, winning seven of its last 10, but it still ranks 19th in offense and 21st in effective field goal percentage.
Atlanta should be able to hang around in this contest.
Pick: Hawks +4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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