Another year and another moon-sighting controversy beckons within the Muslim community as the end of Ramadan approaches.
Astronomers say the crescent moon heralding the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr will not be visible from most of the world, including the Middle East, on Saturday 29 March, when many are expected to look for it.
But many believe that regardless of a sighting or lack thereof, Saudi Arabia may declare Eid for Sunday anyway.
For years, the kingdom – home to Islam’s holiest sites – has been accused by critics of “faking” some of its sightings of the moon by reporting them on days when scientists and astronomers insist it is impossible to see it. Saudi authorities have never responded to these criticisms.
So what is behind the controversy?
Muslims follow the lunar calendar, which consists of 12 months lasting between either 29 or 30 days.
The end of the fasting month of Ramadan depends on the sighting (or lack thereof) of the crescent moon.
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Some countries rely on local moon sighters to spot the new crescent, while many leave it to Saudi Arabia to call it.
In countries without official moon-sighting bodies, like the UK, many Muslims also follow Saudi Arabia’s lead, although some religious scholars in the kingdom have urged people elsewhere not to do so.
According to the kingdom’s pre-determined calendar, the first day of Shawwal, Eid al-Fitr, will be this Sunday 30 March.
Yet astronomers say it will be impossible to see the moon – even with optical aid, such as telescopes – on Saturday.
Many Muslim-majority countries are expected to celebrate on the same day as Saudi Arabia, while others are likely to look for the moon on Sunday and declare Eid for Monday.
This follows a series of controversies in previous years.
‘I challenge anyone to photograph it’
In April 2023, astronomers questioned the Saudi sighting of the moon for Eid al-Fitr, saying it had been scientifically impossible for the moon to be seen.
On 20 April that year, as Saudi Arabia’s moon-sighting committee was looking for the moon, prominent Kuwaiti astronomer Adel al-Saadoun declared that it was “impossible to see the crescent this evening” in the Arabian Peninsula.
“I challenge anyone who sees it to photograph it as evidence,” he added. But shortly afterwards, Eid was officially declared in Saudi Arabia.
Many observers called on Saudi authorities to produce a picture of the moon.
No official image was provided, although Saudi astronomer Mulham al-Hindi posted an image of the faintest outline of a moon that he claimed was taken using a charge-coupled device (CCD) infrared camera.
Last year, in 2024, Saudi Arabia announced on 6 June that Eid ul-Adha (the second Eid of the year) would commence in ten days after the new crescent moon for the month of Dhu al-Hijjah was sighted.
That was despite astronomical bodies insisting it was impossible for the moon to have been sighted.
Impossible to see the moon on 29 March
This year, the Qatar Calendar House has forecast that the moon will reach its conjunction with the sun on Saturday 29 March.
But the moon will not be visible in Saudi Arabia or in Britain that day, even with the use of optical aid, according to His Majesty’s Nautical Almanac Office in the UK.
The government body, which produces astronomical data, has said that the crescent will be “easily visible” the following day, on Sunday.
The UAE-based International Astronomy Centre has likewise explained that in the Middle East it will be impossible to see the crescent on Saturday, even with new technology.
“For countries that require the correct sighting of the crescent moon, Ramadan is expected to last 30 days and Eid al-Fitr is expected to fall on Monday March 31,” the IAC said in a recent report.
But it pointed out that because the moon will reach its conjunction with the sun on Saturday, “it is not unlikely that some countries will declare Eid Al Fitr on Sunday, March 30.”
Ramadan: Why some UK Muslims stopped following Saudi Arabia’s moon sighting
Saudi Arabia uses a calendar called the Umm al-Qura, which is based on calculations and marks key dates years in advance.
According to the Umm al-Qura calendar, the first day of the month of Shawwal – the day of Eid al-Fitr – will fall on Sunday 30 March.
This is why many experts predict that the Saudi authorities will declare Eid for Sunday, regardless of the crescent’s visibility on Saturday.
Imad Ahmed is founder and director of the New Crescent Society, an astronomy society which specialises in the Islamic calendar in the UK.
Ahmed, who is doing a PhD at Cambridge University on the Islamic calendar, runs an astronomy programme with the Royal Observatory in Greenwich.
“We have noticed that Saudi are very willing to produce moon-sightings which are scientifically impossible,” Ahmed told MEE.
“They do so regularly, and we can predict them because they mostly match the Umm al-Qura calendar, which doesn’t match lunar visibility.
“The same two or three moon sighters in specific locations in Saudi claim to see the moon every year. No one else makes the claim.”
Pre-calculated Eid
Saudi Arabia is not the only country to use a calendar based on calculations – Turkey does so too.
“Turkey’s calendar is pre-calculated and their formula is more or less the same as Saudi Arabia’s,” Ahmed explained.
“But they’re transparent. They don’t claim they’ve seen the moon, like Saudi do. They’re clear about what their formula is.”
‘The moon will be impossible to see in Saudi, because it will be too thin and too low on the horizon for there to be sufficient light coming from it’
– Imad Ahmed, New Crescent Society
So what about this Saturday?
“It will be scientifically impossible to see the moon in Saudi Arabia, all of Europe, Asia and Africa,” Ahmed said.
“The moon will be impossible to see in Saudi, because it will be too thin and too low on the horizon for there to be sufficient light coming from it. Even a telescope could not detect it.”
Saudi Arabia is not alone in its methods. Several other countries in the region, including Egypt, Kuwait and the UAE, customarily declare Eid on the same day as Saudi Arabia.
Other countries, like Oman and Jordan, often celebrate on the same day but on occasion do not.
In 2024, both Oman and Jordan did not accept Saudi Arabia’s sighting on Sunday 10 March for Ramadan, and began fasting on Tuesday 12 March instead.
Shia-majority Iran, which has an official moon-sighting taskforce, began Ramadan a day after Saudi Arabia this year, and will look for the crescent on Sunday.
Divided communities in the UK
In countries like the UK, Muslims celebrate Eid on different days. While many follow Saudi Arabia, others look to Morocco – which is the nearest Muslim-majority country and never follows Saudi Arabia’s lead.
But increasing numbers of British Muslims are opting for local moon sighting.
Ahmed’s New Crescent Society carries out sightings across the country and aims to gather support for a unified Islamic calendar for Britain.
‘Our goal is to unite the Muslims of the UK. We’re trying to bring the moon back home’
– Imad Ahmed
“For decades in the UK we’ve celebrated on different days,” Ahmed said.
“We even have families who don’t celebrate on the same day. It’s caused hurt and division. Our goal is to unite the Muslims of the UK. We’re trying to bring the moon back home.”
In the past, many Muslims commonly believed that the moon could not be seen in Britain due to cloudy weather. But that perception is changing.
“We don’t need to outsource moon sighting,” Ahmed explained.
“And the younger generation of Muslims are interested in the notion of unity and an end to division, particularly after Gaza.”
Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, whose government has never engaged with critics of its moon-sighting practices, it remains possible that the moon-sighting committee will say they have not seen the moon on Saturday, and that Eid will not be declared until Sunday 30 March.
This would mean a diversion from Saudi Arabia’s pre-determined calendar, which many would see as a historic shift in policy.
