Kyle Tucker has come as advertised to the North Side of Chicago and he’s maintaining his status as a run producer. We like him to take advantage of a cushy matchup against Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski and pad his RBI numbers.
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 30, 2025 • 14:33 ET • 4 min read
When the Chicago Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker, they completely changed the identity of this lineup and gave this young team an anchor to build around.
The early returns have been great, as the NL Central-leading Cubbies have scored more runs than anyone in baseball, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions think they keep raking tonight.
Check out my MLB picks for this NL Central matchup with the first pitch set to be thrown at PNC Park in Pittsburgh at 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 30.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My Cubs vs Pirates best bet: Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at bet365)
The Chicago Cubs needed an anchor for this young lineup and Kyle Tucker has been a perfect fit. It still baffles me a bit that the Houston Astros were so willing to move on from the All-Star outfielder. But the Cubbies were more than happy to get him.
Tucker is still just 28 years old, is a three-time All-Star, and also has Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards.
He enters tonight’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates hitting .288 with a .965 OPS, seven home runs, and a big 26 RBI.
The advanced numbers for Tucker are even better. The left-handed hitting slugger ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average at .308 and the 96th in expected slugging at .614.
And tonight, he gets a great matchup against Buccos’ struggling starter Carmen Mlodzinski. The 26-year-old right-hander has made five starts this season. He has allowed at least five hits in all five starts and three earned runs in four.
Mlodzinski owns a 4.92 expected ERA and is giving up a .305 expected batting average. Those rank in the 26th and eighth percentiles, respectively. And frankly, he hasn’t gone against too many imposing lineups.
On top of all that, Tucker has the splits edge and has a .300 batting average and a .981 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
The Cubs should have plenty of base runners and Tucker will drive at least one of them home.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBICarmen Mlodzinski Under 14.5 outs
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 hits allowed
It could be a relatively short night for Mlodzinski. The Cubs are one of the toughest lineups in baseball, ranking second in batting average and OPS, and third in wRC+.
It doesn’t help that he averages 74.4 pitches per start and has topped 90 pitches just once this season. And the patient Cubs lineup can build up the pitch count quickly. Chicago sees the second-most pitches per game.
Five innings feels like his absolute ceiling. He’s only gotten there twice in his five starts, and this will be his toughest game to date.
But Mlodzinski might not be the only one giving up hits tonight. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has undoubtedly been solid, but the left-hander could be in for a bit of a regression.
His expected ERA is 3.66 and his opponent expected batting average is .251, both sitting just around league average.
The Pirates haven’t been great offensively but they’ve been a little better vs. lefties and Boyd has been pitching deep into games with a low hits-allowed prop. Give me Over 4.5 hits allowed for Boyd, a number he’s gone Over in three of his last four starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -170 | Pittsburgh +145
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games for +8.30 Units and a 29% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info
Location PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA Date Wednesday, 4-30-2025 First pitch 6:40 p.m. ET TV Marquee, SportsNet – Pittsburgh Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd
(2-2, 2.54 ERA) Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski
(1-3, 6.95 ERA)
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
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