Who are the favourites to lift the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League trophy? The Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions break down each team’s chances of success.
After Arsenal’s stunning 3-0 home win over Real Madrid and Inter’s impressive 2-1 away victory at Bayern Munich in the first legs of each quarter-final, the Opta supercomputer predictions have been updated.
It’s Arsenal who are now the favourites to lift the trophy, with a 28.4% chance of winning the competition. Mikel Arteta’s side now reach the final in over half of simulations (54.2%).
Thanks to their 2-1 victory over Bayern, Inter have moved up to third favourites with a 21.1% chance, while Barcelona sit in second place at 22.4%.
Real Madrid – who have never come back from a 3-0 first-leg defeat to progress – now win the tournament in 1.1% of simulations.
But how does the rest of the competition look? Here are the updated projections:
Qualified for the quarter-finals: PSG, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Inter, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund
Qualified for the last 16: Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Lille, PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Benfica, PSV, Club Brugge, Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord
Eliminated prior to last 16: Atalanta, Manchester City, Sporting CP, Milan, Juventus, Monaco, Celtic, Brest, Dinamo Zagreb, Stuttgart, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bologna, Crvena zvezda, Sturm Graz, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Bull Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
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