On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Pirates series preview

The Cubs have played 29 games, 18 percent of the 2025 season, without facing a team from its own division, the NL Central.

They’ll begin that round through the division by facing the Pirates, who they beat seven of 13 times last year.

For more on the Pirates, here’s Austin Bechtold, a writer for our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

The Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Chicago Cubs to PNC Park following a 3-3 trip in Los Angeles. Pittsburgh (11-18) is at the bottom of the NL Central standings but could have finished the West Coast stint 5-1.

The Pirates took two out of three from the Angels and blew a 3-0 lead in game three to lose 4-3. Up the road at Chavez Ravine, Paul Skenes dominated Friday night in a 3-0 victory powered by pitching. The Bucs had the lead in all three games of the series against the Dodgers, but made critical decisions and had key errors that faltered their chances at winning.

Derek Shelton’s team fell apart in both games from the fifth inning on and dug themselves a hole incapable of climbing out of against the mighty Dodgers.

One key reason for the Pirates’ early offense was Oneil Cruz. Once considered a top shortstop prospect with a projectable bat and 30/30 potential, Cruz is becoming the star many thought he could be. Cruz hit two leadoff home runs in LA and has hit four leadoff homers in April, the most by any Pirates player in history.

He’s done this despite spending half the month in different parts of the order. Cruz didn’t start batting leadoff until April 14 against the Nationals. He’s hit six home runs in 13 games since his first appearance in the leadoff spot. Cruz owns a .258 BA, eight homers, 16 RBIs, and an MLB-leading 12 stolen bases.

Outside of Cruz and Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates’ offense has struggled to find its footing. Bryan Reynolds is hitting under .240 (.235) and off to a slow start with 38 strikeouts compared to nine walks, despite 14 RBI.

Andrew Heaney starts on Tuesday to begin the three-game series. In a rotation with Paul Skenes, Heaney has statistically been the team’s best starter, earning a 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Heaney has struck out 31 batters through 31.1 innings, compared to six walks, and struck out the first six batters of the game against the Angels on Wednesday.

Carmen Mlodzinski is scheduled to start game two despite allowing 17 earned runs in 22 innings. Mlodzinski hasn’t allowed a run in the first two innings of his starts, but the former reliever hasn’t adapted well to an additional workload in his first rotation opportunity.

Paul Skenes — 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 39 strikeouts in 37.2 innings — pitches the series finale. The Thursday matinee marks one of the best pitching matchups of the early season and Skenes’ first 2025 chance to go against the team he debuted against last year.

Taking the series would allow the Pirates to gain ground on Chicago, six games back, and catapult out of the NL Central cellar by the beginning of May and avoid an insurmountable start to the season.

Fun facts

In case you have forgotten, the Pirates are among the Cubs’ four Central Division rivals. This is the Cubs’ first game of the season against any of the four.

They will play the Brewers for the first time on Friday, at Milwaukee. They won’t play the Reds until May 23, at Cincinnati, and the Cardinals until June 23, at St. Louis

The Cubs’ will not face a division rival at home until May 30, against the Reds. They will host the Pirates for the first time on June 12; the Brewers, June 17; and the Cardinals, July 4.

The Cubs have played nearly 100 more games against the Pirates than against any other team: 2,608, to 2,513 for the runnerup Cardinals. The Reds are third, at 2,416.

The Cubs’ 591 wins at Pittsburgh are their most on the road, 16 more than at Philadelphia. But their 711 losses also are the most, 40 more than at St. Louis.

The Cubs have won the season series vs. the Pirates for 10 straight seasons, while winning 103 games and losing 65, a winning percentage of .612. At Pittsburgh, they are 51-36-1, .585.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (2-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.21 FIP) vs. Andrew Heaney, LHP (2-1, 1.72 ERA, 0.766 WHIP, 2.27 FIP)

Wednesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (2-2, 2.54 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 4.02 FIP) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP (1-3, 6.95 ERA, 1.818 WHIP, 3.84 FIP)

Thursday: Colin Rea, RHP (1-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 1.51 FIP) vs. Paul Skenes, RHP (3-2, 2.39 ERA, 0.796 WHIP, 1.74 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Wednesday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 11:35 a.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Pirates are in last place in the NL Central and that’s probably where they will finish. They have played somewhat better at home (6-7) than on the road (5-11). They did get swept by Cleveland in their last home series, though.

I think the Cubs can win two of these, likely losing to Skenes on Thursday.

Up next

The Cubs head to Milwaukee for another divisional matchup against the Brewers. That three-game series begins Friday evening.

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