As May quickly approaches, the New York Mets are the class of Major League Baseball.

Sitting in first place in the NL East, New York also has the best record in the league. Their starting pitching has the best team ERA in baseball (2.62), their bullpen has been solid for most of the season, and their lineup has done more than enough to extend and win games. With players like Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez back with the team, New York is in a position to firmly entrench itself in the upper level of teams for the majority of the season.

For their next series, New York welcomes a fascinating ballclub in the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona, led by early-season MVP candidate Corbin Carroll, has an upper-tier offense that is very versatile. They can hit for power, average, and steal bases. Simply put, it is an offense that can attack a pitching staff in every possible way and provide constant pressure to their opponents.

On the other hand, Arizona’s pitching has been one of the worst in the league (4.38 ERA, 24th in MLB). Whether it is their starters or relievers, this area of the game has been the Achilles’ heel of an otherwise promising team this season.

Even though Arizona is in fourth place, they are still 15-13 and an extremely tough out over a full series. The Mets cannot and should not overlook this team, one of the best they will face in their first 30 games. Arizona’s pitching is a potential sleeping giant, while the Carroll-led offense poses a fun test for the Mets’ pitching.

The early-week series at Citi Field should be a fun one, and we have you covered once again here at Metsmerized! Follow along as we preview the Mets’ upcoming series against the Diamondbacks!

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Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: David Peterson (1–1, 3.29 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (1–2, 4.40 ERA)

• To start the series, the Mets are sending out lefty David Peterson. After a great start to his 2025 campaign, Peterson allowed eight hits and two runs, and only struck out two batters in 5.1 innings of work. There are plenty of good things going on with Peterson; his changeup and slider are registering as plus-pitches, while he is inducing ground balls 56.3 percent of the time. However, Peterson’s fastball has not been great; he is not generating whiffs (19.0%), and he has allowed a hard-hit rate of 52.5%. To succeed against this Arizona lineup, Peterson must rely on his offspeed pitches and be smart in who he attacks. For Arizona, Eduardo Rodríguez has been very up and down in 2025. He has produced some nice strikeout numbers and underlying metrics recently, but he has also been hit hard by some opponents (16 hits allowed in his past two starts). New York has a prime opportunity to take game one of the series against the lefty pitcher.

Wednesday: TBD vs. Corbin Burnes (0–1, 4.05 ERA) 

• I would love to tell you who is pitching this game for the Mets, but I truly do not know. This could be a spot starter like Brandon Waddell, a Brandon Sproat debut, or another surprise the Mets may have. The uncertainty of the probable pitcher in this matchup makes Tuesday a must-win for the Mets. However, New York facing Corbin Burnes may make Wednesday’s game an easier task. Burnes has lost velocity on his pitches, specifically his cutter and sinker. He is walking more batters, giving up more solid contact, and striking out fewer batters. This has culminated in a 4.05 ERA and a lot of questions surrounding the major offseason signing. In the midst of his struggles, the Mets could make things worse for the veteran pitcher.  

Thursday: Kodai Senga (3–1, 1.26 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (1–4, 5.57 ERA)

• If things were going right for one of the pitchers in this matchup, Thursday could have been the ace battle between the Mets and the Diamondbacks. New York’s Kodai Senga has been phenomenal in 2025; over his last four starts, the ace has 17 strikeouts and has only allowed two runs. He has a pitching value of five, while his offspeed pitches alone have a runvalue of four. Even against a formidable Arizona lineup, I am confident Senga can get consistent outs for New York. On the other hand, Zac Gallen is in a very similar situation to his teammate Corbin Burnes. His metrics are not as bad as his teammate’s, as he does have an overall offspeed pitch value of two (90th percentile). However, he is walking more batters, not striking out as many batters, and is allowing a bit more hard contact than usual. Gallen will be a tough opponent for New York, but he does not seem like his usual ace-like self heading into his next start. 

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The Main Headline

For this upcoming series, my focus is on two specific players I mentioned earlier: Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez.

Both McNeil and Alvarez have already produced since their return to the big league club. Both players have four hits and two extra-base hits, one of which is a home run. McNeil has a triple on the year, while Alvarez has a double to go with his home run. Both players have also appeared in three games, all against the Nationals.

What I am watching, though, is how consistent these two players are. Can Alvarez bring solid defense and an upper-level bat to the lineup against a good Diamondbacks ballclub? Can McNeil continue to channel the production that he has had since the second half of the 2024 season?

The Mets’ lineup is starting to reach its final form. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are on fire. Juan Soto has been a key offensive option and producer, and that is before he has gotten truly red-hot for the first time this season. Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos look primed to burst out of their early-season slumps.

If Alvarez and McNeil can produce at the bottom half of the New York lineup, things could get scary for the rest of baseball. They are truly a major key that will determine if the Mets can achieve supernova status heading into May baseball.

The Diamondbacks series will not confirm or deny the answer to the question. However, it will provide the foundation, and if both Alvarez and McNeil continue to produce, the supernova status will very much be in play for New York.

Prediction

The New York Mets will keep things rolling this week, taking two of three games from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kodai Senga will throw a gem, while David Peterson will return to form and notch a win for New York. Francisco Alvarez will hit one home run, while Jeff McNeil will notch five hits in the series. Edwin Díaz will notch a save, as will Max Kranick. Heading into a road series against the Cardinals, I predict that the Mets will have a six-game lead in the division and still have the best record in the league.