It doesn’t take a sabermetrician to understand the basic baseball principle of clutch hitting: A team that collects hits with runners on base generally has a better chance to win than one that doesn’t. The formula isn’t perfect, but the Washington Nationals’ 19-5 loss to the New York Mets on Monday served as a pretty good case study.
The Nationals had nine at-bats with runners in scoring position at Nationals Park. But they didn’t have a hit in those situations until the eighth inning, when they were already trailing 15-0. The Mets had 10 hits in 17 such at-bats.
So Washington (13-16), for the second time this series, followed an exhilarating walk-off win with an underwhelming dud of a loss and settled for a split against the Mets (20-9), who own the best record in baseball.
“It was a good game until it wasn’t,” Manager Dave Martinez said. “We had our chances today early offensively. … When we chase, nothing good comes out of it. We got to stop chasing, especially with guys on base. We got to get good pitches to it. When we do that, we’re pretty good.”
The Nationals entered play Monday hitting .237 with runners in scoring position — 21st in the major leagues. But in the series finale, they couldn’t take advantage of their opportunities.
Nathaniel Lowe grounded out in the first inning with a runner on second, then hit into an inning-ending double play with two runners on in the third. Jacob Young struck out on three pitches in the second inning with runners on the corners, then grounded into a fielder’s choice with a pair of runners on in the fourth.
“We got some guys on and gave us a chance when it was still close,” Young said. “Just weren’t able to come through with that hit when we needed it in those moments.”
Washington didn’t score until the eighth inning when James Wood and Lowe launched solo homers. Alex Call hit a two-run single and Nasim Nuñez added an RBI single, but things had long since been decided. The Mets tacked on four runs against infielder Amed Rosario in the ninth.
“At-bats got better,” Martinez said. “Granted, the game was a little bit out of hand, but we got some balls in the zone and started hammering some balls. … But we got to do that early.”
Especially with runners in scoring position — and the Nationals have been struggling when they’re pitching in those situations as well. Washington’s starting pitchers have combined for the ninth-best ERA (3.68) in baseball. Their bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by almost two full runs (7.30). But here’s where they have been the same — opponents are hitting .293 against the Nationals’ pitching staff collectively with runners in scoring position.
That continued Monday afternoon, though Washington’s defense didn’t do starter Trevor Williams any favors in the second inning. Francisco Alvarez hit a catchable line drive to left field with runners on the corners. Alex Call didn’t get a strong read, and his diving attempt was a step too late. A hit with an expected batting average of .120 turned into an RBI double that gave the Mets a 1-0 lead.
Jeff McNeil followed by working a 10-pitch at-bat before hitting a sacrifice fly that extended New York’s lead to 2-0. Williams retired seven of the next eight batters he faced until McNeil hit a first-pitch solo homer in the fifth that extended the Mets’ lead to 3-0.
“He’s a contact-first hitter where he can put the bat on the ball in any spot,” Williams said of McNeil. “You’re looking for swing and miss, but he doesn’t chase much. It was a good-fought battle. He won that one. And then the second at-bat, I just threw it right down the middle.”
Martinez trusted Williams to start the sixth, but the 33-year-old right-hander walked two of the first three batters he faced. Lefty Colin Poche entered to match up with Brandon Nimmo. Poche fell behind 2-0 before Nimmo launched a three-run home run to extend the Mets’ lead. And Nimmo wasn’t done.
The Mets scored five runs in the seventh off Cole Henry, who hadn’t allowed a run his first six big league appearances until Monday. Nimmo accounted for four of those runs with one swing when he launched a fastball out to right. Nimmo added a two-run double in the Mets’ fourth-run eighth, matching a franchise record with a nine-RBI game. It was also his third hit with runners in scoring position. The Nationals had three as a team.
Note: Martinez said the team still hasn’t determined the next steps for right-hander Michael Soroka, who threw 78 pitches in a rehab start for Class AA Harrisburg on Sunday. Soroka said Monday that his second outing went better than his first and he threw more changeups in addition to his fastball and breaking ball.
