The Detroit Tigers (18-10) and the Houston Astros (14-13) open a 3-game series Monday at Daikin Park in Houston. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros won regular-season series 4-2 in 2024; Tigers won 2-0 in AL Wild Card Series
The Tigers roll into the Space City with a little momentum after sweeping the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend in 3 games. It was the third consecutive series win for Detroit, too, as it is 8-2 across the past 10 games since April 17. The Under is on a roll for the Tigers, too, cashing at a 8-2-2 clip in the past 12 outings.
Detroit has won 4 in a row, but the last game it lost was a game with Monday’s starter RHP Jack Flaherty on the bump. He was the victim of a lack of offensive support in a 2-0 loss at Comerica Park against the San Diego Padres last Tuesday.
The Astros were able to salvage the series finale Sunday againstnthe Royals in Kansas City, winning 7-3, after getting blanked 2-0 in the first 2 games of the series. Prior to that, Houston had been playing its best ball of the season, going 5-1 in a pair of series at Daikin Park against the Padres and Toronto Blue Jays.
In Sunday’s victory over the Royals, the 7 runs scored were the third-highest of the season for the Astros, and the Over (7.5) cashed to halt a 7-game run to the Under. SS Jeremy Pena and DH Yordan Alvarez collected 2 hits apiece, with 3 RBIs each. Alvarez had a double and his third homer of the season.
Tigers at Astros projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Ronel Blanco
Flaherty (1-2, 2.63 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 27 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 2-0 home setback vs. Padres Tuesday
- 2025 road splits: 0-1, 4.35 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 8 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 1-1, 2.31 ERA (11 1/2 IP, 3 ER), 10 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 13 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 2.92 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 22 H (3 HR), 1.05 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 4 starts (5 games)
Blanco (2-2, 5.01 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 23 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H (1 solo HR), 2 BB, 3 K in 5-1 home win vs. Blue Jays Tuesday
- 2025 home splits: 2-1, 3.24 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H (2 HR), 6 BB, 16 K, 0.96 WHIP in 3 starts
- 2024 vs. Tigers (regular season): Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 8 K (94 pitches) in 4-1 home win June 16
- Career vs. Tigers: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (10 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 3 BB, 11 K in 1 start and 2 relief appearances
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Tigers at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+170) | Astros +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Tigers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
The TIGERS (+100) are worth a play at even-money in this series opener.
Detroit has been playing good baseball, winning 4 consecutive outings. It is a respectable 5-4 in the past 9 games on the road, too, and it has the confidence of going down to Houston and winning in the Wild Card round last season. The Tigers know they can win against the Astros, and Flaherty has pitched well for them. He just needs a little bit of offensive support.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little conservative, Astros +1.5 (-210) might seem like a slam-dunk play. But, you cannot risk more than 2 times your potential return just for a little bit of insurance. Over the long term, laying such big numbers is a losing strategy. If you like Houston, just play it straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-118) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.
Flaherty and Blanco have been spinning it, and the Astros have cashed low routinely. Yes, Houston had an Over in Sunday’s series finale in Kansas City, but the Under is still 7-1 in the past 8 games. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 outings at Daikin Park, too.
The Tigers have been hitting low lately, too, going 4-0-1 in the past 5 games, and 10-3-2 across the previous 15 outings.
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