The Toronto Blue Jays (12-10) take on the Houston Astros (10-11) in the opener of a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Daikin Park is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Blue Jays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Houston won 5-2 last year
The Jays dropped 2 of 3 at home to the Seattle Mariners over the weekend. The latest was an 8-3 defeat Sunday as basically a pick ’em (-104) with the Over (8.5) cashing. SS Bo Bichette and 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went a combined 4-for-8, but the next 3 hitters went 1-for-13. The Jays are 5-5 over the last 10.
The Astros dropped the finale to the visiting San Diego Padres 3-2 Sunday but took 2 of 3 in the series. Houston was a -118 favorite in the loss as the Under (7.5) hit. The Astros have been good at run prevention as they’re sixth in runs allowed per game (3.76), but they’re struggling to score on the offensive side, ranking 26th (3.67 runs per game), per Teamrankings.com. LF Jose Altuve is hitting .302 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs on the young season.
Blue Jays at Astros projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.71 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 25 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
- Career vs. Astros: 3-4, 5.01 (41 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 7 starts, last facing them in 2023
- Last 5 starts vs. Astros: 2-3, 4.55 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 39 K’s
Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 24 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 2-0 shutout at St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 5 H, 6 BB, 10 K’s in 2 starts
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Blue Jays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:51 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Blue Jays at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Blue Jays 3
Moneyline
Get familiar with Brown’s name because he’s turning into a star. He has pitched 12 straight shutout frames on the road and allowed just 6 hits in his last 2 starts.
He’s the primary reason I like the ASTROS (-140) here.
Run line/Against the spread
I am skipping the RL and taking HUNTER BROWN UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (-160). The Blue Jays are the second-toughest team to strike out thus far (per Teamrankings.com), and Brown’s K numbers have been down in the last 2 starts with 4 and 3. He also has 5 K’s in each career start against the Jays.
Over/Under
Neither of these offenses are hitting on all cylinders. The Jays have scored 3 or 4 in each of their last 4 games, and I look for that to be reduced against Brown. Conversely, Houston has scored 3 or fewer in 5 of 6.
TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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