It’s Monday, April 21 and the Phillies (13-9) are in New York to take on the Mets (15-7). Tylor Megill is slated to take the mound for New York against Aaron Nola for Philadelphia.
The Phillies are coming off a 7-5 extra-inning loss versus the Marlins yesterday, which snapped the chance of a 3-0 sweep over Miami. That 2-1 series win also snapped three-straight seasons tied or loss by Philadelphia. The Mets have won four straight all coming over the Cardinals. The Mets out-scored the Cardinals 19-9 and won three of the four games by three wins. Now let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
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We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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- Date: Monday, April 21, 2025
- Network/Streaming: NBCSP, SNY
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The latest odds as of Monday:
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- Moneyline: Phillies (+100), Mets (-120)
- Pitching matchup for April 21, 2025: Aaron Nola vs. Tylor Megill
- Phillies: Aaron Nola, (0-4, 6.65 ERA)
- Last outing: 5.1 Innings Pitched, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 9 Hits Allowed, 4 Walks, and 8 Strikeouts
- Mets: Tylor Megill, (2-2, 1.40 ERA)
- Last outing: 5.0 Innings Pitched, 2 Earned Runs Allowed, 8 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 3 Strikeouts
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“Aaron Nola is 0-4 this season and allowed at least two earned runs in every start. Nola started against the Mets twice last year and had a 4.05 ERA with 10 hits allowed and six earned runs over 13.1 innings. Nola did strike out 15 and walk two, but his current form is not reminiscent of that. Nola has walked four hitters in back-to-back games and I don’t see a reason why this road start against the Mets, winners of four-straight, would be his get-right spot. It’s Mets ML or pass for me with a lean to the New York Team Total Over 3.5.”
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday’s game between the Phillies and the Mets:
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- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the New York Mets on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Philadelphia Phillies at +1.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
- The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against divisional opponents
- The Phillies’ last 5 road games have stayed under the Total
- The Mets have covered in 4 of their last 5 games for a profit of 3.63 units
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
