Between the introduction of the NBA Cup and the play-in tournament, the NBA has given teams more opportunity to celebrate success during the grind of the regular season. Still, make no mistake: The NBA’s best-of-seven playoffs is where the action means the most.
Because there are fewer series and matchups are so meaningful, we don’t typically pick the entire NBA playoff bracket beforehand. But I’ll be going series by series to identify how I think the postseason is most likely to play out. Naturally, there’s a particular focus on what history can tell us about the first-round series that are already set, with an emphasis on what we can learn from regular-season meetings between the two teams and key matchups to watch.
In both conferences, there’s a clear favorite, with the defending champion Boston Celtics seen as most likely to come out of the East despite being the No. 2 seed and an Oklahoma City Thunder team that finished 16 games atop the West separating from the pack. But there’s still plenty of drama on the way to the Finals, including a few potential upsets. Let’s break down the bracket.
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Offseason guides
East first round
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)
The Heat made some NBA history by becoming the the first No. 10 seed to advance to the playoffs through the play-in rounds. Their reward for beating Chicago and Atlanta on the road? A first-round series date with the Cavs.
Miami did beat the Cavs once this season, with Jimmy Butler III scoring 18 points in December. The Heat were also competitive in Cleveland in March, but a Miami team without Butler will be hard-pressed to score enough points to extend the series.
The pick: Cavaliers in 5
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7)
The Magic were one of only three teams to win the head-to-head series with the Celtics, although that comes with an asterisk: None of Boston’s regular starters played in a 96-76 loss last weekend in Orlando. On the flip side, that was the only game the Magic’s Franz Wagner played against the Celtics. In fact, Orlando’s December win came without either Wagner or Paolo Banchero.
As we saw during last year’s playoff run, complacency is a potential concern for Boston. But when the Celtics are locked in, the Magic probably will struggle to score. Orlando averaged 100.3 points in last year’s first-round seven-game rock-fight loss to the Cavaliers, and that was with a better offense than we’ve seen from the Magic without injured point guard Jalen Suggs.
The pick: Celtics in 5
New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6)
The Pistons are yet another lower seed that won the season series, in this case 3-1 with a win at Madison Square Garden last week in a game Knicks forward OG Anunoby did not play.
Teams are already preparing for a summer that could see a lot of trades, and some big names coming available as free agents.
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Detroit has to feel good about the matchup on offense. Cade Cunningham is the kind of playmaker who can pick apart the Knicks’ favored drop defense. His 64 picks per 100 possessions as a ball handler in the season series were Cunningham’s most against any East opponent, and his 1.19 points per chance topped that group according to GeniusIQ analysis, an AI-powered sports analytics site. More conventionally, Cunningham averaged 30.8 points and 8.3 assists against the Knicks, though his 13-of-25 3-point shooting (52%) probably won’t carry over to this series.
I’m curious to see whether New York can take away Pistons sixth man Malik Beasley, whose 319 3-pointers this season ranked second in the NBA. Beasley has struggled before in the playoffs, shooting just 26.9% on 3s during the 2023 postseason with the Lakers. If the Knicks can minimize his catch-and-shoot opportunities, Detroit’s below-average half-court offense could stall.
Add in New York’s experience and Jalen Brunson‘s clutch efforts this season and I lean toward the Knicks, but I think this series is closer than conventional wisdom would suggest.
The pick: Knicks in 7
Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5)
Thursday’s news that Milwaukee guard Damian Lillard has been cleared of deep vein thrombosis changes the tenor of the series. Although Lillard remains out for Saturday’s Game 1, there’s a two-day break before Game 2 on Tuesday that could facilitate his return.
The Pacers and Bucks have become a fun Midwest rivalry, dating to last season’s confrontation over a game ball and a testy showdown in the 2023 NBA Cup semifinals. After Indiana won four of five meetings in 2023-24, plus last year’s first-round series with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, Milwaukee took three of four this season — including a win en route to the 2024 NBA Cup title.
There’s no good answer for the Pacers defensively against Antetokounmpo, whose .678 true shooting percentage against Indiana was the best of any East playoff opponent. But I think Milwaukee’s ability to find supplementary scoring will be key to this series.
Kyle Kuzma wasn’t the difference-maker the Bucks hoped, averaging 14.5 points on below-average efficiency after joining the team at the trade deadline. Kevin Porter Jr. did thrive in Milwaukee, averaging 11.7 points and making 41% of his 3s. This will be Porter’s playoff debut and he looms especially large with Lillard working his way back to game conditioning. There’s enough uncertainty to make the Pacers the safer pick.
The pick: Pacers in 7
East semifinals
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (4)
Because these teams met twice in the last four days of the regular season after locking up their seeds, they played only two real games, splitting them. This would be a fun matchup, but Cleveland has more high-end talent and options for adjustments.
The pick: Cavaliers in 6
Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)
Despairing over this matchup after Boston won all four matchups this season with three of the wins by 13-plus points, Knicks fans would quickly talk themselves into an upset after New York steals a game at TD Garden, only to watch as the Celtics silence Knicks fans with a pair of road wins.
The pick: Celtics in 5
East finals
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)
The anticipated East showdown would pit the NBA’s top two teams in terms of 3-pointers. They split the season series 2-2, with no game decided by more than seven points.
If Jaylen Brown is close to 100% and isn’t still dealing with his troublesome right knee, I think Boston’s high-level experience wins out.
The pick: Celtics in 7
West first round
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Even when things were going well for the Grizzlies, they were no match for the Thunder, who swept the season series by an average of 18.8 points — albeit with Ja Morant sitting out two of the three games.
But keep an eye on the battle inside between these two teams. Memphis scored the second-most paint PPG (56.0) during the regular season while the Thunder allowed the fewest paint PPG (42.5), according to ESPN Research.
The pick: Thunder in 4
Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7)
Welcome to the heavyweight portion of the West first round. The Rockets’ reward for locking up the No. 2 seed with three games left in the regular season is to face perhaps the NBA’s hottest team, a Warriors squad that has gone 24-7 with Jimmy Butler III in the lineup, including Tuesday’s win over Memphis to secure the No. 7 seed.
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Between Butler, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State has a massive advantage in playoff experience. Houston’s roster is actually in the middle of the pack in playoff minutes, but the bulk of those come from reserves Steven Adams and Jeff Green. Fred VanVleet, who helped the Toronto Raptors beat the Warriors in the 2019 Finals, and Dillon Brooks are the lone players in the Rockets’ top-seven rotation who have ever played in the playoffs.
Historically, playoff experience is a major plus. Higher seeds like Houston with an experience disadvantage of 11,000 minutes or more (Golden State is plus-11,364) have won only 37% of best-of-seven series since 2003. Alternatively, the Rockets have younger, fresher legs. Most starters have played only once since beating the Warriors on April 6 at the Chase Center to clinch their seed, while Golden State played grueling games including an overtime loss to the Clippers in Sunday’s regular-season finale and then a down-to-the wire win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday.
And Houston has multiple quality defenders to throw at the Warriors’ stars. NBA Defensive Player of the Year contender Amen Thompson was key in holding Curry to 1-of-10 shooting in the teams’ previous meeting. The experience factor pushes me toward Golden State but expect a battle.
The pick: Warriors in 6
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
Amusingly, this series features the second-largest West gap between the two teams in point differential after the 1-8 series — only it favors the lower-seeded Timberwolves (plus-5.0), who were second to Oklahoma City in point differential among West teams. The Lakers (plus-1.2) ranked eighth, but they have home-court advantage nonetheless.
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The Lakers were much more successful with both Luka Doncic and LeBron James in the lineup, going 15-8 with a plus-4.5 differential. That includes a nine-point win over Minnesota in the only meeting since Doncic’s arrival, albeit with Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle of the Timberwolves sidelined.
Doncic has done well against Gobert, including averaging 32.4 points and shooting 43% on 3s in last year’s conference finals win while with the Mavericks. Among the 14 defenders who have covered the screener on at least 150 screens for Doncic since 2020-21, the 1.13 points per direct play he has averaged against Gobert is fourth highest, per GeniusIQ.
It’s certainly possible Minnesota can use its size and a number of capable perimeter defenders to slow down the Lakers, but I’m betting on star power and home court.
The pick: Lakers in 7
(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) LA Clippers
This feels like the pick I’m most likely to regret either way given the obvious weaknesses on both sides: Kawhi Leonard‘s health track record and James Harden‘s playoff struggles for the Clippers; Jamal Murray‘s health and an interim head coach (David Adelman) with three games experience for the Nuggets.
Historically, this matchup has favored Denver, which won nine out of 10 meetings in which Nikola Jokic played between April 2021 and November 2023. But the Clippers have taken four of the past five games Jokic played, and one of the Nuggets’ head-to-head wins in this season’s 2-2 split was a blowout with Jokic sidelined. (Leonard did not play in any of the four games.)
Murray might be the more interesting matchup issue. On paper, the Clippers have strong point-of-attack defense between Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. But in reality, Murray torched the Clippers, shooting 53% from the field and 11-of-21 from 3-point range in the four meetings.
The wild card is Russell Westbrook, who had a strong game (19 points, eight assists) with Jokic out of the lineup but shot a combined 5-of-28 in the other three matchups against his former team. If Westbrook can’t give Denver reliable minutes, the team’s depth will quickly become an issue.
Ultimately, I’m going with the coach I trust most (Tyronn Lue) over the star I trust most (Jokic).
The pick: Clippers in 7
West semifinals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. LA Clippers (5)
The teams that’ll be forever intertwined by the Paul George–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade nearly six years ago would pit two of the league’s top three defenses against each other in a skilled slugfest. I think the Clippers could make things interesting but would run out of gas late in the series.
The pick: Thunder in 6
Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (7)
A rematch of the 2023 series between these teams in the same round, plus four Finals matchups between Curry and James, would be the marquee matchup. Both teams would happily go small, trading off limited size for maximum skill.
As a tiebreaker, I think the Lakers would have a little more gas left in the tank after avoiding the play-in and a hard sprint to the finish line of the regular season.
The pick: Lakers in 7
West finals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (3)
Because the Thunder don’t have any grizzled veterans populating their bench and the Lakers top the Warriors in playoff experience, this would be an even bigger mismatch in that regard than the Golden State-Houston matchup is. Much would be made of the Lakers’ 27-point win in Oklahoma City in April, which came on the strength of unsustainably hot 55% 3-point shooting.
The Lakers have the top-end talent to reach the Finals, but to borrow a favorite phrase of ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the Thunder have more margin for error.
The pick: Thunder in 6
NBA Finals
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)
Here we go: the defending champs against the team that put together a historic regular season. The chess match of matchups in Celtics-Thunder would be worth the price of admission, with both teams capable of putting two bigs on the court or going small and switching across all five positions.
I started the season picking Oklahoma City over Boston (let’s not discuss my conference finals picks), and certainly the Thunder’s regular season hasn’t made me less confident in them.
The pick: Thunder in 7
