Photo courtesy Warner Bros.
Pros
A Minecraft Movie is riding a lot of momentum, and held well in its second weekend. The market still doesn’t have anything like it, and we think the broad appeal and high awareness of the title should be enough to maintain first place once again. Controversy over thrown popcorn and “chicken jockey” behavior continues to keep awareness high. The biggest Easter 3-Day openings tend to be big event tentpole movies like Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166M), Furious 7 ($147.18M), or The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146.36M)… and—unlike primary competition Sinners—the third week of Minecraft fits right into the paradigm.
Cons
It will be a close horse race between Sinners and Minecraft this weekend. While actuals for Minecraft‘s debut were nearly $5M higher than initial estimates, it went the other way by over -$2M in Frame 2 (from the reported $80.6M Sunday to $78.5M actual figure). The -52% drop from the spectacular opening plus that Monday actual dip indicates foot traffic is dissipating, though at $283.8M domestic so far it could reach $400M domestic without breaking a sweat over the next few weeks.
Pros
The 1930s period horror film Sinners starring Michael B. Jordan is going to live or die by word-of-mouth, so the sparkling/near-perfect 99% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes should prove very valuable. A muted marketing campaign for opening weekend, however, suggests a somewhat softer debut. Tracking has kicked up for this title in the days leading up to its Thursday pre-shows, so we can’t discount the boost that strong word-of-mouth and IMAX screenings can bring. There’s a chance this opens at $40M+ with walkups, it certainly has that potential, but a debut in the $30M’s is a more realistic range to set expectations.
Cons
Period horror movies are risky. Vampire films of the 2020’s in general have been negative earners the likes of Morbius ($73.8M), The Last Voyage of the Demeter ($13.6M), Renfield ($17.29M), and Abigail ($25.86M)… but then there’s always Nosferatu ($95.6M). The big factor there was a combination of classic film cache and a golden boy auteur in Robert Eggers that helped it transcend its R-rating and art house trappings. Sinners has got that same director appeal in fan fav Ryan Coogler of the Black Panther and Creed franchises. The real question? Can Coogler deliver an original hit without the Rocky/Marvel advantage? The overwhelmingly positive reaction from critics suggests the movie will stick around regardless of its box office performance.
Pros
Angel Studios’ The King of Kings enjoyed a fantastic opening weekend that went beyond the typical faith-based numbers, ultimately beating the previous Biblical animated record held by Prince of Egypt. We expect it to hold well over the Easter festivities with a drop in the -50% arena. Plus, Fathom’s theatrical run for The Chosen: Last Supper has basically run its course, leaving King of Kings the go-to for the Christian demo in North America. Currently sitting at $21M domestic, it could very well beat 1966’s The Bible ($36M) to become the 12th highest-grossing religious text movie of all-time by this frame’s end.
Cons
Competition for that family dollar gets split three ways this weekend between King of Kings, Minecraft, and the platform launch of A24’s quirky The Legend of Ochi, the latter of which is better-reviewed than King of Kings at a current 78% on RT. It’s possible the cute practical creatures of Ochi might win out with their Mogwai-like cuteness over the animated Jesus tale. There’s a reason why this movie opened the weekend before Easter: this Sunday could see a dropoff in ticket buys while more religious audiences attend houses of worship.
Photo courtesy Warner Bros.
