Last year, the Orlando Magic entered the season’s final week as the 3-seed in the Eastern Conference and one win away from clinching a playoff berth.
Everyone knew the road home would be difficult with a three-game road trip. But confidence was flowing, and the Magic were on the doorstep of clinching their playoff spot.
An unexpected three-game losing streak put all of that in jeopardy. The Orlando Magic needed a win on the final day of the regular season at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.
It was one final test for this young team trying to break through to the playoffs. A test that the young team stumbled through but eventually passed. It was something they put in their memory banks.
Orlando clearly learned its lesson. For a team with playoff experience and going through the season eager to return to the playoffs, they had to focus and rally to grab their spot.
The Magic finished 12-6 in the final 18 games. They faced the Atlanta Hawks in a critical matchup to win the Southeast Division and came out on top. They had three games to secure the 7-seed. They took care of that business by defeating an undermanned Boston Celtics team at home, making the final two games inconsequential.
The Magic are still a young team. They are still taking their scars as they try to grow into a title contender. There are a lot of areas this team still must grow and improve. Just as there are still plenty of areas the front office must improve this offseason.
The return to the postseason, though, is something. The Play-In is not yet a return to the playoffs. Orlando still has work to do to secure its spot in the playoffs.
The Magic’s season has not turned out how anybody hoped. Instead, the team was forced to make the most of what they have remaining. They did that by winning the division and getting a home game in the Play-In Tournament.
The team was always going to be judged by how they performed in the postseason. This is where the team will figure out what it needs and how good its young players are.
And so there are a ton of questions the Magic must answer to make the most of their postseason run.
5. How much has the offense recovered?
If you see any previews for the upcoming playoffs, they are undoubtedly going to mention the Orlando Magic’s offense. The Magic have the worst offense among teams that made the postseason and finished the year shooting a league-worst 31.8 percent from three.
That is a narrative that has been set in stone. And for national writers parachuting in for takes on the Magic, this is the narrative that prevails. Can Orlando score enough?
That is a fair question, honestly.
The Magic are still due for a dud every so often. The shots do not fall and the team’s offensive floor is much lower than about any team that is in the postseason.
But this is not how the Magic have played for the past month. Since the team went on its 12-6 run to close the season, the Magic’s offense has been . . . league average. And with this team’s killer defense, league average is more than enough.
Since March 7, Orlando has an 113.6 offensive rating, good for 22nd in the league. That is nothing to write home about, but it is not terrible either. The starting group is a few points per 100 possessions better. The team is better offensively in that time with either Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner on the floor (and pretty terrible when they are off the floor).
Even more encouraging, the Magic are shooting 35.2 in that time frame. Merely being slightly below average changes the Magic’s outlook completely.
These are small samples. And it will not change the Magic’s need to find offense in the offseason. But Orlando is not some offensive pushover anymore.
And if the Magic are merely OK on offense, their defense will carry them a long way. Certainly far enough in the Play-In Tournament.
4. What postseason trends from last year were real?
Last year, nobody knew how the Orlando Magic would react to playing in the postseason. So few players on the roster had been put under the microscope and the test the postseason brings. It was an interesting test of their mettle.
Whether it was coaching decisions—starting Jonathan Isaac at center against Jarrett Allen was a little too much—or how role players stepped up or didn’t or how Paolo Banchero shined on the playoff stage, the Magic learned a lot about themselves in those seven games against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
There were a lot of questions about it though. What was real? What could the Magic count on for the next season? What was going to happen the next time they were in the postseason?
Banchero shined the brightest, averaging 27.0 points per game and pouring in big performances. He had three 30-point games, including 39 in Game 5 and 38 in Game 7. In the biggest games of the year for the Magic, Banchero stepped up and crushed a defense geared to stop him.
That should have been enough to anoint Banchero the next big young star in the NBA. Instead, we got another year of questioning his efficiency and wondering if his stats were “empty calories.” His injuries and his slow recovery from the oblique tear only fed that tired argument.
Since March 7, Banchero is averaging 29.3 points per game and shooting 47.7 percent from the floor and a decent 34.3 percent from three. Banchero is expected to turn in these kinds of performances in the postseason again.
This could also be a chance for redemption.
Franz Wagner turned in a solid postseason, including a 34-point effort in Game 4 and a 26-point showing in Game 6. But everyone remembers his frustrating 1-for-15 showing in Game 7. Wagner has had a strong season to put that behind him. But the playoffs are where a lot of narratives get set. Wagner is looking for redemption and consistency in the postseason this time around.
There are plenty of other players who need a bit of redemption as the Magic establish themselves. But Orlando is still figuring itself out as a team under these circumstances. One series is not a pattern. Two teaches you a lot.
3. How much of a gap have the injuries left to the top teams?
The Orlando Magic entered the season with ambitions of competing for homecourt advantage. Early in the season, they were fighting for that spot and a place among the Eastern Conference’s elite. But the Magic probably even knew then they were not in teh same level as the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics.
The Magic can rightfully place their Play-In seeding on the injuries. Orlando could not overcome the massive amount of injuries they faced this season. That they finished .500 and in the 7-seed is a minor miracle that everyone can recognize.
But even if healthy, the Magic know they must climb another level to compete with the top teams in the conference. The question is how much higher must they climb? Is this a small tweak on the margins or a bigger overhaul?
That is the biggest question. And the Magic would probably prefer to answer that question in the second round of the playoffs after a series victory.
That is not in the cards. Instead, assuming the Magic can win one of the next two games, they will get to see those teams directly in the first round.
To be sure, the Celtics and Cavaliers are probably not thrilled at the prospect of facing a more in-rhythm Magic team. Orlando is not going to be the typical 7- or 8-seed in the playoffs.
For the Magic, though, this direct matchup should give them a sense of how far they are from competing at that level. A good series could even catapult them into next season with some added confidence that the team is not that far.
Orlando will be able to do that side-by-side directly when the team plays in the postseason. It is just getting there to get that experience.
2. What did Jamahl Mosley learn from his first playoffs?
Orlando Magic coach Jamahl Mosley has been praised for his ability to keep the team together and fighting throughout this often frustrating season. Mosley seems to have all the intangibles of coaching down to manage a long year and keep the team engaged and bought in.
Everyone on this Magic team believes and there were a few shaky moments this year when things could have fallen apart.
But Mosley is not free from criticism. Fans often question his game management, when he calls timeouts to stop runs, how he subs in and out Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, his 10-man rotations and even who he chooses to stick with among his many limited options.
Mosley had a good showing in his first playoff series. But he also made a ton of mistakes. The decision to start Jonathan Isaac in Games 1 and 2 did not work out. His decision to go to a 10-man rotation hurt the team early in the series.
There will not be the same feeling out for what a series will be like this time. The Magic seem more confident and understanding of their team now. And Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner had taken to all the added responsibility. He also has so few options he can trust.
Still, there will be things he must do tactically to work around his team’s shortcomings and some tough decisions that he may have to make.
Mosley is going to be under the spotlight starting with the playoffs as the Magic consider how to take their next step. He is still growing and developing as a coach. This is a big series to show he can make the most of his roster and see if he can be peskier with fewer resources against the elite in the league.
1. What needs will become evident for the offseason?
Exiting last year’s playoffs, it felt obvious what the Orlando Magic needed. They needed shooting most of all. The team’s shooting was so unreliable but was enough to push the Magic to multiple playoff wins when they were making enough of those shots.
The other need was also obvious. They needed another creator to help ease the burden on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. They looked like they needed some organization and just another player to put pressure on defenses, so Banchero and Wagner were not banging their heads against the wall.
The Magic opted to try to fix the 3-point shooting by adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—the version of the last six weeks is certainly better than what they got overall. They did not address the other creator need, hoping to expand Banchero and Wagner’s roles. They bet on Jalen Suggs taking a step as a playmaker and a shooter—perhaps he would have before injuries changed his role and cut Suggs’ season short.
This Orlando team needs a significant offensive upgrade this summer. Just how big and where the team needs that upgrade is probably still evident. But the playoffs will reveal how major of an upgrade and where else the Magic might need to improve.
How aggressive Orlando is addressing clear needs will likely come down to how the team plays in the postseason.
Regardless of the outcome, the playoffs will play a major role in the Magic and their next steps.
