Golfbet Roundtable: Picks for the Masters

Written by Will Gray

AUGUSTA, Ga. – If history is any indicator – and the term tends to carry some weight around the hills and hollows of Augusta National Golf Club – the field of contenders at the 89th Masters Tournament just thinned considerably.

Justin Rose leads by three shots after an opening-round 65, but a more important mark lies a bit further down the leaderboard. The last 19 Masters champions, and 72 of the 88 all-time winners, were inside the top 11 after the opening round. To find an outlier you have to go all the way back to 2005, when Tiger Woods started T33 and ultimately defeated Chris DiMarco in a playoff.

By and large, this course rewards those who start fast and punishes those trying to play catch-up. Whether that leans more toward the physical demands of the course, or the mental tax of being in chase mode for 54 holes, is up for debate.

“It makes sense because it’s the kind of golf course that needs a ton of respect,” Rose said. “So when you are playing with the lead or around the lead, you have the ability or you’re afforded the luxury of patience and respecting holes and respecting pins and things like that. When you’re in chase mode, you end up possibly making one or two silly bogeys by trying to play catch-up, and that obviously hampers the catch-up.”

“The funny thing about Augusta is it’s very, very easy to psych yourself out, depending on how the course is,” added Jason Day. “You know that the progression of play from day-to-day gradually usually gets harder.”

Now there is a bit of an asterisk in play with this trend: We’ve got a whopping 16-way tie for 11th place at 1 under, a list that includes six former champions (among them, 65-year-old Fred Couples). But the only player to win from outside the top 10 in the last two decades was, once again, Woods – who was T11 on a tightly-packed board in 2019.

So unless the echoes of the five-time green jacket winner get stirred, we’re looking at a 95-man field culled down to 10 true contenders after the opening round. And no, that list does not include Rory McIlroy (even, +1200), whose two late double bogeys likely mar his chances of completing the career Grand Slam despite a brilliant start to his opening round.

Let’s take a look at each of the current top 10, and see where the in-play value may lie:

If you liked Scheffler at +400 pre-tournament, you’re going to love him at half the price after just one round. The defending champ flashed his inevitable form in the opener, carding the only bogey-free round while becoming the clear betting favorite once McIlroy faltered. He came into the week stating that he was as prepared as ever for the tournament, and the lack of hardware in his run-up to the Masters didn’t seem to make a bit of difference on Thursday.

Eventually, Scheffler will blink (right?) and at that point this price could tick up a hair. But it’s hard to envision him fading in a big way. A better return might be the +350 price for him to catch Rose and lead after Round 2 – if he’s going to do it, it just might happen quickly.

The Swede is trying to buck another trend, as no champion since Angel Cabrera in 2009 has missed the cut in the start before his Masters triumph. Åberg missed two in a row at TPC Sawgrass and Memorial Park, and he was stuck in neutral through 11 holes. Birdies on four of his last seven shot his name toward the top of the leaderboard, and there are likely many in-play bettors who pounced on that run in combination with his impressive runner-up performance last year as a debutant.

Åberg has all the shots, and he missed just three greens in regulation. I’d go one name further on the odds board for an overnight add, but he’s going to remain in the mix through the weekend.

Do I wish I backed Rose at +11000 outright pre-tournament? Sure. Do I think it’s a little disrespectful to have him behind both Scheffler and Åberg on the updated odds board? Absolutely. Rose is in an interesting position at age 44, speaking after the round about the security of his long-term legacy but knowing that this could amplify those prior feats. He has played well in two of the last three majors, T-6 at Valhalla and T-2 at Royal Troon, and came achingly close to victory here in 2017. I don’t know that he’ll win, but I do feel confident that he’s not going away – and that some value remains on this in-play price for him to snag major No. 2.

DeChambeau is hoping to revise last year’s script, when he opened with 65 but failed to break par the rest of the week. He was the last man on the range, firing off drives with flood lights guiding his path in the dying light, but the more important elements will come from close range. He’s unlikely to make seven birdies each round, as he did on Thursday. The question becomes – can he limit the four bogeys that largely stemmed from sloppy chipping? Keep in mind he’s on a quest to join some heady company – since 1964 only Tiger Woods (2001) has won the Masters as the reigning U.S. Open champ.

Canada, rise up! Conners strung together three straight top-10 finishes here from 2020-22, and his 4-under 68 was highlighted by a bunker hole-out to save par on No. 7. He breezed through the Florida Swing with three straight top-10 finishes to build ample Masters momentum, but the questions will always focus on his short game. He passed the test in the opener, needing just 28 putts thanks in part to the bunker save, but it’s likely an area that will keep him from the green jacket. Those low Canadian honors, now revised to a -600 price in a four-way market, seem pretty safe.

Hatton is working on his anger, but it remains a work in progress. “It’s like, you love being here and it’s very special, but at any moment you can just hit a shot and it just does your head in,” Hatton said. “I just need to keep hitting perfect shots.” Perfect is a lofty target, especially at Augusta National. Hatton’s T9 finish here last year was his best in eight attempts, so he’s picking up ground – but it feels likely that his title chances will eventually come undone by a rough stretch of a few holes.

Bhatia is an intriguing in-play option at this price, given he salvaged a turbulent round with a birdie flourish to close his second nine. Bhatia played Nos. 5-12 in 4 over, seemingly derailing his chances, but bounced back with five birdies in his final six holes.

The 23-year-old has a brash style of play that can lead to high-variance results, but he also has the mindset that allows him to keep firing at treacherous pins. It can sometimes bite, but it also allows for some odds-defying runs. Having made the cut here last year in his debut and coming off a T3 finish at THE PLAYERS, there seems to be ample upside for Bhatia in top-five or top-10 finish markets at +500 and +200, respectively.

The Aussie was a runner-up here in 2011 and had one arm in the green jacket in 2013, holding a two-shot lead on the 70th tee. He’s still in the mix for a legacy-altering second major after hitting 15 of 18 greens in regulation, but it’s been a while since he’s been this close at the Masters (T5 in 2019). But he has been flying a bit under the radar, with three top-15s in his last six TOUR starts highlighted by a T8 at Bay Hill last month.

The Englishman was one of the early names on the green-and-white leaderboards in Augusta, playing his first eight holes in 4 under. He made six birdies on the day, but keep in mind that only one Masters debutant since World War II has won (Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979). Rai is still ultra green in the biggest events, having made the cut in four of seven major starts with no finish better than T19.

The longest longshot still standing, if the historical trends are to hold. English has made four of five Masters cuts but has never finished better than T21, as most of his major success has come in the U.S. Open. He led the field with 16 of 18 greens in regulation but might need that ball-striking to hold given he went 0-for-2 scrambling.