Expectations heading into this week showed projections of about 140,000 new jobs having been added in the United States in March. As it turns out, according to the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the totals easily exceeded expectations. NBC News reported:

The U.S. added 228,000 jobs in March, far more than the 140,000 economists had expected. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% the month before. … The March report shows a resilient U.S. economy, though it’s already a snapshot in time. After President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announcement Wednesday slammed into global markets, analysts say the labor market is likely to enter more uncertain terrain.

By any fair measure, 228,000 jobs in a month is a good number, and 4.2% is still low by historical standards. The totals from January and February were revised down, and job growth in the first quarter of 2025 was the worst first quarter since Trump’s first term, but all things considered, it’d be a mistake to suggest that the latest data is discouraging.

But there is some fine print: The job totals were collected in early March, long before the Trump administration roiled the global economy and sent markets into tailspins.

About a half-hour after the jobs report reached the public, the president published an item to his social media platform that read, “GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING. HANK TOUGH, WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”

The idea that the Republican’s agenda is “already working” isn’t just wrong, it’s absurd. The likelihood of a recession is growing. Key businesses have announced layoffs. Consumer prices are poised to climb. Domestic markets are reeling.

The good news on job growth is encouraging, but it in no way validates the White House’s radical and dangerous agenda.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm KPMG, told The New York Times that she was “pleasantly surprised” by the overall data, but she added that the impending repercussions of federal job cuts and tariffs will mean “this is likely to be the high-water mark.”

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note to clients after the jobs report was released, “Next month is when hard data is likely to start showing signs of what soft data has already been signaling.”

In other words, there’s nothing wrong with feeling good about a solid jobs report, but it’d probably be best to keep the champagne on ice.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.