89-73, first place in the American League East

There are plenty of things about the 2025 Red Sox I’m really excited about: Garrett Crochet at the top of the rotation, a trio of dynamic rookies, and great starting pitching depth (compared to previous years, at least). And there are plenty of things about the 2025 Red Sox I’m really worried about: a bullpen that has the potential look ugly, a rotation filled with question marks behind Crochet, and possible growing pains for the rooks. In short, I see an up-and-down season by a talented but flawed team.

But when I look at the rest of the American league, I see the same thing. I think the Sox, Yankees, and Orioles will spend all season frustrating their fans and trading places atop the division. I’ll be optimistic and say the Sox are the ones on top when the music stops.

— Dan Secatore

92-70, first place in the American League East

— Fitzy Mo Peña

89-73, first place in the American League East

I think this team is going to be very good, I’m just a little bit concerned about the early-season pitching injuries. The depth is there to make up for it, but lack of spring training can make it difficult for pitchers to find their rhythm. I don’t worry about it too much for Lucas Giolito, but I think it’s cause for concern with Brayan Bello and to a lesser extent Kutter Crawford. This lineup is going to rake, and the defense should be better. I think it’s going to be a very fun summer at Fenway.

— Jacob Roy

87-75, second place in the American League East

Ok, don’t take this for lack of excitement or confidence in the team but they’re already down most of a starting rotation with Bryan Bello, Lucas Giolito, and Kutter Crawford on the IL to start the season. As much as you can “bank” wins in April you can also bank losses and I think we’re going to see two teams: a .500 or less April squad and a great May-September team that was held back by it.

— Mike Carlucci

89-73, first place in the American League East

Even one month ago, I would not have been this optimistic, but when two of your division rivals lose their legitimate ace and a third’s MVP candidate starts the season on the IL, it starts to look awfully like the Sox have the upper hand to put everything together after so many years flailing about.

— Bryan Joiner

90-72, first place in the American League East

The Red Sox could easily be in the same spot as the Yankees and Orioles staffs two weeks from now and this will look silly. Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, and Grayson Rodriguez have significant injuries, and Corbin Burnes has moved to the National League. On paper, it’s hard to find a 95-win team across the entire American League. Every single division and wild card spot feels up for grabs this year. Adding Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, and Kristian Campbell (with more to come) feels like a good first step toward taking this division.

— Bob Osgood

89-73, second place in the American League East

This is the best Red Sox team on paper in quite in a while, but it’s not without holes. The bullpen and the bottom of the rotation will probably make just enough games unwinnable to keep them short of a division title. The good news? You can still win the World Series from this position if you get hot in October.

— Matthew Gross

86-76, second place in the American League East

I’m usually sour grapes, and it seems as though I am here in a jury of my peers, as well, but make no mistake: this team has the possibility of being very good if enough goes right. The Red Sox had the best- and aggressive- offseason they’ve had since at least 2019. I daresay they had the best offseason in the division. They’re not going to be world-beaters, but they will be a team right in the thick of things due to emerging stars. However, this season’s signing list was volatile, featuring several signings coming off injuries that are not sure things, and the chance of several winning lottery tickets in a sequence is very low.

– Dean Roussel

91-71, first place in the American League East

I know so many of us last year were that pessimistic about the team, so it’s amazing to see the turn for 2025. This is both as nice a bump for the Red Sox as it is an indictment on the way the rest of the division handled their off-seasons. Losing Juan Soto sucked for the Yankees, and they didn’t replace him well with Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. Will Belly have fun with the short porch? 100%, but it won’t replace a generational talent. Losing Gerritt Cole hits even harder, so it’s incumbent on Max Fried being an ace and Aaron Judge staying healthy to make the Yankees contenders. The Orioles lost Corbin Burnes and did a very poor job of replacing his arm. They also didn’t bring back Anthony Santander, and while Tyler O’Neill will be missed here, we know his weaknesses. The Red Sox finally have the right combination of factors to make a statement in 2025.

— Jake Reiser

92-70, first place in the American League East

The Sox’s significant moves over the offseason will pay off in 2025. Looking at the other AL East teams, I can’t see another team who will go toe-to-toe with us here, mainly due to injuries. I’m concerned about our own injuries—the current ones, as well as the inevitable future ones—and I have some doubts about the bullpen. But I think we have enough pistons firing that we can pull this off.

— Maura McGurk

Who will have the most pleasantly surprising season?

Ceddanne Rafaela

The defense is already there, of course, and I don’t think he’ll be an albatross at the plate

— Fitzy

Masataka Yoshida

The guy can hit. He’s the odd man out and I don’t know if he’ll find his way into the lineup regularly, but if he does, he’s going to hit.

— Jacob Roy

Quinn Priester

I don’t know when he’ll be up but we know how pitchers tend to miss time. There’s some stiff to build on here and we’re going to see Andrew Bailey pull another rabbit out of his hat.

— Mike Carlucci

Garrett Crochet

I still think we’re not adequately prepared for how big of a star he’s about to become around here. I think he’ll be the face of the team by mid-May.

— Bryan Joiner

Luis Guerrero

He struggled to throw strikes in spring training and has options so he was an easy demotion but Guerrero should play a key role this season in a bullpen that has a lot of questions. Guerrero’s control got better as 2024 progressed, earning him a late-season call-up to Boston, throwing ten scoreless innings with a 2:9 BB:K ratio. He has back of the ‘pen upside with a heater that touches 100 and a change-up out pitch and slider that can play. Guerrero could easily make 40 appearances with the big club this year and be a high-leverage arm in the second half.

— Bob Osgood

Ceddanne Rafaela

The defense is already spectacular, he plays up the middle, the base running is above average, and he’s still only entering his age 24 season. He’s often overlooked because of what Duran did last year from center, but if Rafaela develops even a little bit of pitch recognition to go along all his other tools and the surprising amount of pop he has for his size, you’re all of a sudden talking about a guy who is going to catch a few MVP votes along with the many fly balls he tracks down in center.

— Matthew Gross

Richard Fitts

I nailed this with Kutter Crawford last year and Jarren Duran two years ago. Check the tapes! This year, I go with a tricky one. Richard Fitts had a great end to 2024, inducing ways out of innings and impressing with his velocity… and his ERA ended up at 1.74, albeit with just four starts (and getting a bit lucky, as his FIP is almost twice that.) Strikeouts were tough to come by in his limited time last year, and he’s even been improving on that this March. He’s still just 25 and in the search of his first Major League win, but given that the back end of the rotation is starting the season on the IL, it’s a perfect chance for Fitts to create some staying power on the roster, even as a multi-inning reliever.

— Dean Roussel

Marcelo Mayer

We know Kristian Campbell is breaking camp with the big squad, but I’d argue Mayer had the most to prove this Spring and certainly did so. A .983 OPS shows me he’s got the talent to showcase sooner rather than later. Whether it’s at short or second, I think Mayer will earn a shot by the beginning of the summer as long as he stays healthy between now and then.

— Jake Reiser

The Fans

As we emerge from our enforced hibernation of the past several seasons, the most pleasant surprise will be just how good it feels to be a Red Sox fan again.

— Maura McGurk

Who will have the most disappointing season?

Connor Wong

This is not to say that he’ll be capital-B Bad, but it’ll be hard to imagine him having another year with an OPS+ about 10% better than league average if his quality of contact metrics don’t improve (20th percentile in hard hit rate in 2025, to go with a 16th percentile xwOBA; that doesn’t scream “consistency at the plate” to me).

— Fitzy

Liam Hendriks

I so badly want Liam Hendriks to be great, but the velocity isn’t there, and I’m not sure it’s going to come back. Maybe the adrenaline of regular-season baseball gets him going, but I’m worried about his performance if he’s sitting 93 MPH.

— Jacob Roy

Alex Bregman

Forty million dollars doesn’t go as far as you’d think. OBP hits a new career low. He opts in for 2026.

— Mike Carlucci

Tanner Houck

Houck was quite great last year and I never quite understood how. I think he falls back to league average fairly quickly and decisively.

— Bryan Joiner

Triston Casas

Presumably furious already that a rookie broke camp with the team, the seasoned veteran (222 career games) is unable to complete his pre-game routine due to the early start time and injures his toe crashing into the tarp on Marathon Monday. According to Casas, doctors had only previously seen his injury in underground coal mining accidents. Thanks to modern virtual reality advancements, Casas is able to visualize 500 swings a day the entire summer and returns in August, homering three times in one game against the Marlins. Pundits across the country put Casas on their early 2026 sleeper and breakout lists.

— Bob Osgood

The Bullpen

Aroldis “I need a GPS to find home plate” Chapman didn’t inspire me when he was in his prime blowing big time postseason games last decade. So him winning the closer job on this team to start the season is one enormous red flag. The Sox front office, despite upgrades elsewhere on the roster, largely skimped out here, and I expect that to manifest itself in pretty painful fashion out of the gate.

— Matthew Gross

Second Base and Shortstop

Whoever is playing it, that is. Kristian Campbell is going to be green for at least a year before settling into a role, who knows what’s going to happen with Vaughn Grissom as the team awaits a return from dealing a Cy Young candidate. Romy Gonzalez is a utility player and may spend more time as a backup first baseman. Marcelo Mayer may be up by the end of the season but will likely be at second more than his native shortstop. And Trevor Story is an injury liability at shortstop, potentially causing the team to have to scramble at this position. I love Nick Sogard and Rob Refsnyder, but there’s not enough shining time at this particular position for either of these guys. Unless…

— Dean Roussel

Aroldis Chapman, specifically

Can Andrew Bailey and the Run Prevention Unit try their best to fix Chapman and make him not as loose of a cannon as he is? Sure! Do I think it’s going to work? Absolutely not. It’s either let him be as is, or he has to slow down his velocity to work on his command…which will lead to absolute meatballs. Thankfully there are other members of the ‘pen who can handle high-leverage situations, but Chapman is a massive concern for me in that regard.

— Jake Reiser

Rafael Devers

I think this whole idea of having “[his] position” taken from him has messed with his head. Personally, I never quite understood why he was so upset. It couldn’t have been a surprise, and he never seemed like a player who particularly cared about his defense. I know he was said to be studying Nolan Arenado’s footwork, but leading the league in errors at your position for seven years in a row might tend to give the impression that defensive improvement isn’t at the top of your agenda. But it turned out he cared—big time! He allegedly thought about requesting a trade. And while some players in this completely common-sense scenario might see this as an opportunity, I think it’s a sensitive spot for Devers, and it will take some work for him to move past it.

— Maura McGurk

Amongst the newcomers, whose City Connect jersey will we see the most around Fenway by Labor Day?

Garrett Crochet

He’s the next capital-G great Red Sox pitcher, and he’s going to light up the fans right away.

— Dan Secatore

Justin Wilson

A 37-year-old journeyman lefty is sure to be the next Fenway craze. If you don’t see that, I can’t help you. No, it’s Garrett Crochet. It’ll take two starts for people to realize just how good this guy is.

— Jacob Roy

Roman Anthony

Kristian Campbell may have an early lead with his soup-to-nuts approach to the game but Fenway Park is going to look like Prince spaghetti night by September.

— Mike Carlucci

Garrett Crochet

Easy call for me here, though Roman Anthony could make a late-charging case.

— Bryan Joiner

Garrett Crochet

If you’re going to make an investment in a jersey, you want it to last a good five years. Get the damn extension done.

— Bob Osgood

Garrett Crochet

Not only is the answer Crochet, but many of the people wearing them will also be carrying around signs with pig emojis on them. His starts are going to be pure theater this year!

— Matthew Gross

Garrett Crochet

I can’t be contrarian here. He’s almost certain to be a stud, and will be the backbone of this rotation before eventually signing a rotation this winter, or maybe even sooner.

– Dean Roussel

Garrett Crochet

He’s got the goods, and I hope he gets the extension we all deserve. Side note: this is one impressive list of newcomers, though, especially when you compare it to last year.

— Maura McGurk

Garrett Crochet

Bump on everything everyone has said above. No notes.

— Jake Reiser

In 10 years the 2025 Red Sox season will be remembered for…

Being the one that laid the foundation to the next great era of Red Sox prosperity, both on the field and in the front office

— Fitzy

The Big Three making their debut.

— Mike Carlucci

Finally escaping the Chaim Bloom era, ending one of the most inexplicable self-sabotages we’ve ever seen in Boston sports.

— Bryan Joiner

Alex Bregman’s “Adrian Beltre” season in Boston. A Hall of Fame career that made a brief stop at Fenway before signing his next big deal.

— Bob Osgood

The year when we could finally move on.

— Maura McGurk

Something that happens in October. And that fact we know more about the when than the what is a wonderful thing.

— Matthew Gross

A team that announced their contention in the AL for years to come. This is a playoff team, and due to the bracket expansion, every team has a puncher’s chance in October. Some guys get hot at the right times, who knows what happens. At the very least, this is a very deep team with some question marks and a very exciting foundation of newly acquired backbones and an early presentation of the some of the most enticing prospects we’ve seen in some time.

— Dean Roussel

The start of a new era. It feels like the first time since maybe 2018 that I’ve had this much hype for the future of the Red Sox. They spent on assets that genuinely make this team better. Their core prospect pool looks primed to make the jump to the big leagues. There’s a swagger about this team not earnestly felt in a long time, not just fake vibes for the memes. The confidence around them feels real. This feels like the start of something special. How far it goes all depends on what happens on the field and how the front office moves on the fly, but this has the potential to be era-defining.

— Jake Reiser

The year the Red Sox won the World Series. Why not?

— Jacob Roy