It’s a dandy second-round matchup at the NIT on Saturday when the Dayton Flyers battle the Chattanooga Mocs.
The Mocs have just a single loss over their last 12, including a thrilling triple-overtime win in their tournament opener. Meanwhile, Dayton has ripped off wins in five of its last six.
Our Dayton vs. Chattanooga predictions and college basketball picks believe these high-powered offenses will tip the total in the Over’s favor.
Who will win Dayton vs Chattanooga?
It probably didn’t mean much then, but the Dayton Flyers played a heavily weighted slate against five ranked teams before December 20, and those big-game reps should be the difference on Saturday.
Dayton played UNC (then No. 12), Iowa State (No. 5), UConn (No. 2), Marquette (No. 6), and Cincinnati (No. 19) — four teams currently participating in the NCAA Tournament — and went 2-3 in those matchups.
Their KenPom strength of schedule is just outside the Top 90, and Chattanooga is 105th overall, with a 210 SOS ranking. Also, consider the Chattanooga Mocs needed triple-OT to dispatch Middle Tennessee, and there’s a chance of an emotional letdown, or inability to ramp it up — or to get there too late — by the next game.
In a game with a spread smaller than three points, I like the Flyers to advance.
Dayton vs Chattanooga prediction
My best bet: Over 150 (-110 at bet365)
Dayton moved into Round 2 at the NIT with a nice 86-79 win over Florida Atlantic. The Flyers were paced by the stellar work of Javon Bennett, dropping a game-high 30 points on 10-for-16 shooting, including a deadeye 8-for-12 from 3-point range.
That’s their highest-scoring output during this recent run, and it’s seen them win five of the last six. Still, they’ve all been tight games, with five of those games decided by single digits and the other by 10 points. The Flyers have gone 4-2 against the spread during that span.
Dayton’s offense ranked Top 3 in the A10 this year, putting up 75.5 points per game, and it led the conference in 3-point percentage at a 35.8% clip. That offense was just enough to help out a middle-of-the-pack defense that ranked eighth, allowing 70.3 points per contest.
Chattanooga has an offense that should be able to keep up with the Flyers, as it was second in scoring in the Southern Conference at 79.7 points per game. The Mocs are also coming off their highest-scoring game of the season and the first time they’ve cracked 100 points all year, outlasting Middle Tennessee 109-103 in triple-OT.
Three players cracked the 20+ point plateau in the win, led by Bash Wieland, who scored 31 points and hauled in 11 rebounds. Their only loss since January 25 is in the SoCon Tournament Final, losing to Furman and the right to the Big Dance.
Like the Flyers, scoring isn’t the problem, but holding the other team down is. Chattanooga is sixth in points allowed in the conference at 72.9 per game. While KenPom places its offensive rating inside the Top 55, its defensive efficiency is a distant 244th.
The total seems like the right play in this matchup. Dayton has hit the Over in eight of the last 10, while the Mocs have cashed the Over in six of eight.
Dayton vs Chattanooga same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 150Dayton first-half team total Over 36.5
Dayton moneyline
We’ve explained the Over, and we’ve picked Dayton to advance, so let’s wrap this SGP with a wager on the Flyers’ half-time score.
Dayton had gone Under this first-half team total four times in its last five games, and only in the NIT did it get to cashing the Over, when it potted 44 first-half points against FAU.
Chattanooga allowed 48 first-half points to Middle Tennessee, and this is one of three opponents that’s topped the first-half total in the last 10 games. However, six opponents were within range (30+) with only one team held under 30.
On the assumption Dayton takes this matchup, it should be right in the mix for that half-time total.
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Dayton vs Chattanooga odds
Dayton vs Chattanooga live odds
Dayton vs Chattanooga opening odds
- Spread: Dayton -3 | Chattanooga +3
- Moneyline: Dayton -155 | Chattanooga +130
- Over/Under: Over 149 | Under 149
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Dayton vs Chattanooga betting trend to know
The Mocs’ last five afternoon games at McKenzie Arena have produced 151+ points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. Chattanooga.
How to watch Dayton vs Chattanooga
Location McKenzie Arena, Chattanooga, TN Date Saturday, 3-22-2025 Tip-off 11:30 a.m. ET TV ESPN2
Dayton vs Chattanooga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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